UFC Perth: Carlos Ulberg versus Dominick Reyes kicks off the prelims with a fight between Loma Lookboonmee and Alexia Thainara in the strawweight division at UFC Perth on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Lookboonmee-Thainara prediction and pick.
Loma Lookboonmee (10-3) enters UFC Perth coming off a three-round decision loss to Istela Nunes, halting her winning streak. Prior to that setback, Lookboonmee picked up back-to-back decision victories over Bruna Brasil and Elise Reed, demonstrating her slick Muay Thai and strong defensive grappling as she now prepares to face Thainara.
Alexia Thainara (12-1) surges into UFC Perth off a stunning first-round submission win against Molly McCann, showcasing elite grappling. Her only loss came in 2019 to Bruna Brasil by guillotine. Thainara’s recent streak puts her in prime position for another breakout performance when she faces Lookboonmee.
Here are the UFC Perth Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Perth odds: Loma Lookboonmee-Alexia Thainara odds
Loma Lookboonmee: +200
Alexia Thainara: -245
Over 2.5 rounds: -270
Under 2.5 rounds: +200
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Why Loma Lookboonmee will win
- Last Fight: (W) Istela Nunes – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 2 (1 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Loma Lookboonmee’s path to victory over Alexia Thainara at UFC Perth begins with her elite Muay Thai striking and superior fight IQ. Her precision at distance, along with smart angles and sharp counters, consistently frustrate opponents who pressure forward without a defensive shell.
Lookboonmee’s improved wrestling, showcased in recent fights with solid takedown entries and scrambles, gives her an element of unpredictability. This makes it dangerous for Thainara to overcommit with grappling or crash forward, especially since Loma’s clinch work often results in damaging elbows and knees.
Though Thainara thrives with aggressive grappling, Loma’s 74% takedown defense and experience against other strong wrestlers give her the acumen to thwart early rushes. As Thainara fades in extended exchanges, Lookboonmee’s cardio, movement, and activity help her control the second and third rounds.
If Lookboonmee keeps this fight standing and avoids being pinned against the fence, her clean shot selection, low damage intake, and round-winning output allow her to bank minutes en route to a decision win. In a fifteen-minute battle, Lookboonmee’s technical consistency and ability to manage range should neutralize Thainara’s early submission threats and guide her to victory.
Why Alexia Thainara will win
- Last Fight: (W) Molly McCann – SUB R1
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 8 (8 SUB)
Alexia Thainara can overwhelm Loma Lookboonmee this weekend at UFC Perth by leveraging her aggressive pressure and size advantage. At 5’4” with a 67-inch reach, Thainara can crowd the smaller Lookboonmee against the cage and chain body locks to mat returns with relentless pace.
Thainara’s submission offense is her best weapon, averaging 2.30 attempts per fifteen minutes and coming off a first-round RNC finish in her UFC debut. If she secures the back or sneaks in hooks off clinch exchanges, her finishing equity soars—especially in the opening round where her power is highest.
Loma’s defensive wrestling and scrambling have improved, but Thainara excels in forcing errors through forward pressure. By never taking a step back, she tests her opponent’s cardio and sets up big ground-and-pound shots or fast transitions to grappling attacks.
Should Thainara compress distance early and avoid prolonged clinch pummeling, this matchup can favor her style. She can rack up control time, sap Loma’s volume, and seize a decisive victory with dominant groundwork. Thainara’s blend of physicality and momentum gives her the edge to break Lookboonmee’s rhythm and secure a statement win at UFC Perth.
Final Loma Lookboonmee-Alexia Thainara prediction & pick
This matchup at UFC Perth promises a compelling stylistic battle between Loma Lookboonmee and Alexia Thainara. Lookboonmee brings her elite Muay Thai pedigree and improved wrestling to the cage, while Thainara has a dynamic grappling arsenal and recent momentum with her first-round submission win over Molly McCann.
Lookboonmee’s success will hinge on her technical distance management and defensive wrestling. Her speed advantage, tight boxing combos, and clinch strength can frustrate Thainara, especially if she maintains movement and bank shots on the outside. Each round that stays vertical increases Lookboonmee’s edge, as she accumulates damage with leg kicks and counters while minimizing risk.
However, Thainara’s physicality presents a distinct challenge for the smaller Lookboonmee. Thainara’s reach, powerful body locks, and submission arsenal force exchanges against the fence and on the mat, where she capitalizes on openings. If Thainara closes the distance early, drags it to the mat, and secures top control or back takes, she has a strong chance to work towards a finish or rack up control time.
Ultimately, Lookboonmee’s well-rounded defensive improvements and championship-level composure should allow her to survive the early grappling threat. If she maintains her game plan, uses lateral movement, and keeps the fight standing, Lookboonmee is favored to edge out a close, hard-fought decision in Perth.
Final Loma Lookboonmee-Alexia Thainara Prediction & Pick: Loma Lookboonmee (+200), Over 2.5 Rounds (-270)
