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It's a battle of the Tigers as LSU and Missouri square off in Week 6 at Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium in Columbia. We continue our college football odds series with an LSU-Missouri prediction, pick, and how to watch.
LSU lost its second game of the season a week ago in a 55-49 thriller against Ole Miss, with Brian Kelly's team once again unable to fix some of its defensive issues. That has put a lot of pressure on quarterback Jayden Daniels and the LSU offense to carry them to victories this season.
As for the other set of Tigers, the special season continues for Eli Drinkwitz's squad after moving to 5-0 with a 38-21 win at Vanderbilt.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: LSU-Missouri Odds
LSU: -4.5 (-112)
Missouri: +4.5 (-108)
Over: 64.5 (-115)
Under: 64.5 (-105)
How to Watch LSU vs. Missouri Week 6
TV: ESPN
Stream: fuboTV (click for free trial)
Time: 12 p.m. ET
Why LSU Will Cover The Spread
Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, and Brian Thomas Jr. It's really as simple as that. If the Tigers are going to go on the road and knock off a red-hot Missouri team by at least a touchdown, it's going to be about the big-play ability of their top three playmakers on the roster. Unless the defense makes a significant improvement, LSU is going to have to put up some points to beat Missouri.
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Luckily, there's little reason to believe an offensive outburst won't happen. Daniels and company continue to post incredible numbers on that side of the ball with 551.6 total yards per game, which ranks fourth in all of college football in that category. However, it's the passing game specifically that could be the biggest reason to back LSU in this SEC showdown.
LSU is averaging 353.6 passing yards through five games. Missouri's strength on defense is up front where it allows only 2.5 yards per rush (7th nationally) and 74.2 rushing yards per game (9th). Teams haven't tried to run often on Missouri because of that, but when they've pivoted to the pass, they've found success. Missouri is allowing a 63.5 percent completion percentage for opposing quarterbacks, and that ranks 102nd nationally.
If Daniels hits that number or better, that means he'll have no shortage of opportunities for big plays to his top playmakers. Put the ball in Daniels' hands and let him do the rest. That's how LSU wins this game against a defense that may not be able to contain its best players.
Why Missouri Will Cover The Spread
Missouri's defensive woes don't compare to LSU's defensive woes at the moment. LSU, a team that does not lack talent on defense, currently ranks 109th in scoring defense (31.0 PPG) and 117th in total yards allowed (429.4 YPG). Kelly's team is giving up a whopping 6.5 yards per play (121st nationally). That is brutal for a team that had College Football Playoff aspirations, yet has allowed 45 points in a loss to Florida State and 55 points in a loss to Ole Miss.
Meanwhile, Missouri's quarterback-wide receiver duo of Brady Cook and Luther Burden III has made bad defenses pay this season. Cook has thrown for 1,468 yards and 11 touchdowns through five games, and he set a new SEC record in the win against Vanderbilt by completing his 348th consecutive pass without an interception. Burden has 43 receptions for 644 yards and five touchdowns thus far, including four straight games with 117 or more receiving yards.
Here's the thing: There are others who can take advantage of LSU's defense. Theo Wease Jr., who transferred from Oklahoma, had a breakout game against the Commodores with 10 receptions for 118 yards and a touchdown. Fellow wide receiver Marquis Johnson has only five receptions this season, but in the three games he's played in (Vanderbilt, Memphis, and Kansas State), he's had a 42-yard play or better in each of them.
If LSU's defense lets Cook spread the ball around to all his weapons in this game, Missouri not only covers, but it wins outright.
Final LSU-Missouri Prediction & Pick
The spread continues to shift in Missouri's favor in this game, and for good reason. The Tigers aren't just a one-trick pony, as they have both the offense and defense to play with anyone. To add to the positives, they are 6-2 against the spread at home under Drinkwitz. Daniels should lead LSU to a big offensive performance in this game, and Cook is fully equipped to do the same for Missouri. Getting the underdog at +6 or better was the preferred play, but there's still value in Missouri at this number with LSU's struggles on defense this season.
Final LSU-Missouri Prediction & Pick: Missouri +4.5 (-108)
