The UFC Mexico City Prelims continue as we bring you another betting prediction and pick for this next bout at Catchweight. Lithuania's Ernesta Kareckaite will take on Mexico's own Regina Tarin stepping in on extremely short notice. Check our UFC odds series for the Kareckaite-Tarin prediction and pick.
Ernesta Kareckaite (6-1-1) is 1-1 through her first two UFC fights since a contract win on Dana White's contender series. She edged Nicolle Caliari out via split decision during her last fight, pivoting opponents at the last minute to fight an undefeated prospect in this one. Kareckaite stands 5-foot-9 with a 71-inch reach.
Regina Tarin (7-0) will make her UFC debut on just three days notice after Sofia Montenegro had to withdraw from the bout. She's ranked as the No. 1 pound-for-pound women's prospect in all of Mexico, so the crowd will be anxiously and eagerly supporting her in this one. Tarin stands 5-foot-7.
UFC Mexico City Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Mexico City Odds: Ernesta Kareckaite-Regina Tarin Odds
Ernesta Kareckaite: -180
Regina Tarin: +150
Over 2.5 rounds: -345
Under 2.5 rounds: +250
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Why Ernesta Kareckaite Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Nicolle Caliari – S DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 2 KO/TKO
Ernesta Kareckaite got away with a close split decision win in her last bout over Nicolle Caliari despite being taken down three separate times. Other than that, Kareckaite controlled the striking totals and still denied nine total takedown attempts from her opponent, an indicator that she's been willing to work on that part of her game. She's not likely to need much of her grappling chops in this bout, however, as her newly-scheduled opponent is another willing Muay Thai striker.
Ernesta Kareckaite owns an extremely long frame complemented by a 71-inch reach that gives her an edge over the majority of opponents. She's very active in her kicking game and makes great use of the front teep kick to threaten opponents and create distance. Her defense could use some work at times, but she's an extremely game striker and won't back down from a brawl.
To be successful in this fight, Kareckaite will have to stick to her typical game plan and not stray too far from what she originally intended to do during this fight. A last-minute opponent, especially this late into fight week, could hinder the original fighter like Kareckaite more than Tarin making her debut without anything to lose.
Why Regina Tarin Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Yurivia Jimenez – KO (right hook, R1)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Regina Tarin will step into this short notice bout as the No. 1-ranked women's MMA fighter in Mexico. Fighting with a Muay Thai background, she was actually scheduled to fight a Muay Thai exhibition two days prior to her newly-scheduled UFC bout. She's been awaiting this call for quite some time and with her already training for an upcoming fight, it seemed like the perfect moment to schedule her for her debut in front of her home Mexican crowd.
Tarin fights behind an aggressive striking style that begins with her kicking and ends with her striking blitzes. She's very willing to use jumping techniques and flying knees to close the distance, almost always following it up with a flurry of punches. Her power is apparent with four knockouts already including a quick finish her last time out. Expect her to bring a ton of energy and adrenaline into this debut opportunity.
Assuming Tarin will be in fighting shape for the catchweight weigh-in, she's already a problem with her physicality and could see an advantage not having to cut as much weight. At just 21 years old, her chin is extremely durable and she won't be afraid the close the distance and take some shots in the process to land her own offense.
Final Ernesta Kareckaite-Regina Tarin Prediction & Pick
This should be an exciting debut for the No. 1 prospect from Mexico Regina Tarin as the crowd will give her an extremely warm welcome during her first UFC showing. Ernesta Kareckaite doesn't benefit much from this last-minute shift in opponents, but she'll have experience on her side and the poise of being in this spot herself.
Still, Regina Tarin has shown an extremely polished skill set and her recent improvements in her grappling could mean the difference in this fight. While Kareckaite will have the striking frame to potentially give Tarin problems, Tarin is much more adept and athletic on the ground in chasing submissions.
For our final pick here, we'll roll with Regina Tarin to earn the win during her debut. She may face some early adversity fighting through debut jitters, but expect her aggressive striking and fearlessness to carry her to a win.
Final Ernesta Kareckaite-Regina Tarin Prediction & Pick: Regina Tarin (+150)
