UFC Mexico City: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh kicks off the main card with a bout between Santiago Luna and Angel Pacheco in the bantamweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Luna-Pacheco prediction and pick.
Santiago “Border Boy” Luna (7-0) stormed into the UFC with a comeback first-round knockout of Quang Le after starching Desmond Manabat on the regional scene, keeping his 100% finish rate intact. The 21-year-old Mexican prospect blends sharp boxing and grappling aggression as he comes into his fight this weekend against Angel Pacheco.
Angel Pacheco (7-3) enters on a two-fight skid, dropping decisions to Caolan Loughran in his UFC debut and Danny Silva on Contender Series after building his record as a finisher on the regional scene. Still, his durability, volume, and finishing instincts remain clear as he comes into his fight this weekend against Santiago Luna.
UFC Mexico City Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Mexico City Odds: Santiago Luna-Angel Pacheco Odds
Santiago Luna: -550
Angel Pacheco: +410
Over 1.5 rounds: -105
Under 1.5 rounds: -125
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Why Santiago Luna Will Win
Luna looks like the more complete, reliable three-round fighter in this matchup, even against Pacheco’s wild volume. He’s a 7-0 finisher with a deep wrestling base and proven submission chops, but he’s also shown real one-shot power in recent knockouts of Desmond Manabat and Quang Le.
That dual-threat skill set matters against a fighter like Pacheco, who is extremely hittable while chasing his own offense and willingly eats counters to keep combinations flowing. Luna should be able to punish those defensive lapses with sharp counters and well-timed level changes that break Pacheco’s rhythm and sap his cardio.
On top, Luna’s control and finishing instincts are a serious problem; Pacheco has gone the distance in back-to-back high-output wars, but he’s also shown openings to be ridden out and controlled. If the young Mexican prospect stays composed early, picks his shots and leans on his wrestling when needed, the most likely outcome is Luna closing the show inside the distance or, at worst, cruising to a clear decision in front of a home crowd.
Why Angel Pacheco Will Win
Pacheco’s path to an upset runs straight through pace and chaos, and that’s exactly where he excels. He throws nearly reckless volume, routinely landing and absorbing 11.47 significant strikes per minute, which can force a young, still-developing prospect like Luna into more exchanges than he’s used to.
Luna is 7-0 with a perfect finish rate, but he has also spent a lot of time as the hammer rather than the nail and hasn’t yet been dragged into deep waters at UFC level. Pacheco has gone three hard rounds multiple times, including against Caolan Loughran and Danny Silva, and he’s shown both durability and the willingness to keep throwing late.
If he can survive Luna’s early power and scramble back to his feet after any takedowns, his cumulative volume and body work can start to flip momentum in the second and third rounds. In Mexico City’s altitude, that relentless pressure could expose any cardio or defensive gaps in Luna’s game and allow Pacheco to steal a decision on the back of output, damage and late-round rallies.
Final Santiago Luna-Angel Pacheco Prediction & Pick
Market sentiment and matchup dynamics both point toward Santiago Luna extending his unbeaten run against Angel Pacheco.
The young Mexican is a 7-0 finisher with a legit wrestling base and real knockout power, which gives him multiple, reliable ways to win exchanges. Pacheco is durable and throws big volume, but he’s also extremely hittable and willing to absorb damage to keep his output high.
That style is dangerous against a sharp, explosive counterpuncher like Luna, who has already shown he can turn momentum with a single well-timed shot. Just as importantly, Luna can lean on takedowns and top control if Pacheco’s pressure starts to build, forcing him to work off his back and dulling his offense.
Unless Pacheco can drag Luna into a chaotic war and force late cardio questions, the most likely outcome is Luna punishing defensive lapses, mixing in wrestling when needed, and either finding a finish or banking a comfortable decision in front of a Mexico City crowd firmly in his corner.
Final Santiago Luna-Angel Pacheco Prediction & Pick: Santiago Luna (-550), Over 1.5 Rounds (-105)
