UFC Mexico City will reach a final stop as we bring you our betting prediction and pick for this Main Event in the Flyweight (125) Division. Mexico's former champ and No. 6-ranked Brandon Moreno will take on highly-touted prospect Lone'er Kavanagh of England. Check our UFC odds series for the Moreno-Kavanagh prediction and pick.
Brandon Moreno (23-9-2) has gone 11-6-2 inside the UFC en route to becoming multiple-time flyweight champion. He dropped his most recent bout to Tatsuro Taira and after being scheduled to fight Asu Almabayev, he'll pivot opponents to face a hungry challenging prospect. Moreno stands 5-foot-7 with a 70-inch reach.
Lone'er Kavanagh (9-1) has gone 2-1 since joining the UFC roster in 2024 following a successful Contender Series audition. Opening his tenure with back-to-back wins, he hopes to bounce back from his first promotional loss as he steps into the biggest spot of his young career. Kavanagh stands 5-foot-6 with a 67-inch reach.
UFC Mexico City Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Mexico City Odds: Brandon Moreno-Lone'er Kavanagh Odds
Brandon Moreno: -218
Lone'er Kavanagh: +180
Over 4.5 rounds: -140
Under 4.5 rounds: +110
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Why Brandon Moreno Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Tatsuro Taira – TKO (punches from back mount, R2)
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 11 SUB
Brandon Moreno had a disappointing outing during his most recent bout, failing to topple the rising prospect of Japan's Tatsuro Taira. Taira was simply a step quicker than Moreno that night, quickly taking the back and finishing the fight from there. It looked as though Moreno had an off-night coupled with an opponent on a meteoric rise, but he's typically been good in bouncing back from losses throughout his career. Add the support of his home country and Moreno should come out looking like his usual self in this one.
Moreno will have worlds of experience over his 26-year old opponent and being in numerous five-round title fights will only play to his advantage during this one. He's still pivoting from his original wrestling-heavy opponent in Almabayev, so Moreno's game plan will certainly shift to favor his traditional Mexican boxing style. Kavanagh will serve as a willing dance partner as we should expect Moreno to fall back to his boxing roots in this one.
Moreno will begin this fight extremely composed and carry that energy with him throughout. He never seems too much in a rush when he's working his striking and he'll be looking to slowly pick his opponent apart over the course of five rounds. His wrestling defense should be on point given the work done in his camp, so expect an extremely focused version of him come Saturday night.
Why Lone'er Kavanagh Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Charles Johnson – TKO (ground strikes, R2)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Lone'er Kavanagh will be stepping into the biggest fight of his career after originally-scheduled Asu Almabayev had to withdraw due to a hand injury suffered in camp. Kavanagh will have had around three weeks to prepare for a former champion, but a win here would propel his stock greatly and put him right into the contender conversation. He'll have to learn from his last loss against a veteran like Charles Johnson, so expect much improvements out of the young prospect in his first five-round fight.
Lone'er Kavanagh possesses tremendous speed and agility, making him an explosive striker and extremely difficult to land on cleanly. He's active in darting in and out of range throughout the whole fight, but he'll certainly need to conserve some of his cardio for the later rounds in this one. Kavanagh will also have to remain diligent with his arm guard as Moreno has been known to find a home in his jab during these fights.
Shaking off any pre-fight jitters, Kavanagh should offer a look similar to Moreno's previous opponent in Tatsuro Taira. The speed will be his biggest asset and while he's not likely to edge Moreno on the scorecards if this goes the distance, he could certainly threaten with big strikes and mixing in level-changes as well.
Final Brandon Moreno-Lone'er Kavanagh Prediction & Pick
This has all the makings of a great Main Event as the Mexican fans will reach a fever pitch for their favorite fighter in Brandon Moreno. Moreno should be motivated given the crowd support and he's typically shown some of his best work in bouncing back from a loss.
Lone'er Kavanagh will provide a solid test for Moreno as he's very gifted athletically and is growing as a striker with each passing fight. However, his last loss to Charles Johnson was cause for concern and he'll have to make several significant changes if he wants a chance in his first main event.
This Main Event has Brandon Moreno written all over it and I expect Moreno to control the action for five rounds behind his boxing. It should be a masterclass on the feet as Kavanagh will have a great deal to learn from being in this spot.
Final Brandon Moreno-Lone'er Kavanagh Prediction & Pick: Brandon Moreno (-218); OVER 4.5 Rounds (-140)
