UFC Mexico City: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh continues on the main card with the co-main event between Chito Vera and David Martinez in the bantamweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Vera-Martinez prediction and pick.
Marlon “Chito” Vera (23-11-1) finds himself in a tricky spot, rebounding from his title-fight loss to Sean O’Malley after previously edging out Pedro Munhoz on the cards but then losing three in a row, most recently a razor-close split decision defeat to Aiemann Zahabi. The durable Ecuadorian sniper still leans on late-fight surges, calf kicks, and counter power as he looks to buck the trend and get back into the win column this weekend against David Martinez.
David “El Toro” Martinez (13-1) has been on a tear, securing a dominant decision win on DWCS to earn his UFC contract. He then followed it up with a brutal first-round knockout of Saimon Oliveira in his UFC debut, and a dominant decision win inside the Octagon against Rob Font that showcased his well-rounded aggression and relentless pressure, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Chito Vera.
UFC Mexico City Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Mexico City Odds: Chito Vera-Daniel Cormier Odds
Chito Vera: +260
David Martinez: -325
Over 2.5 rounds: -425
Under 2.5 rounds: +300
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Why Chito Vera Will Win
Vera might not be on his best run, but this is still a massive step up for David Martinez in terms of experience and durability. Across 25 UFC bouts, Vera has never been finished, even while sharing the cage with elite names like Sean O’Malley, Deiveson Figueiredo, and Cory Sandhagen.
That level of five-round, top-10 seasoning matters against a hitter like Martinez, who has largely been styling on regional and lower-tier UFC opposition during his nine-fight winning streak. If Martinez can’t seriously hurt Vera early, he’s going to have to navigate Vera’s trademark late surges, calf kicks, and building pressure down the stretch.
Vera also does his best work in grimy clinch exchanges where he can elbow, knee, and attack submissions, exactly the kind of fight Martinez tends to invite when he marches forward. In a three-rounder at altitude, the most likely script is Martinez starting sharp, but Vera’s toughness, body work, and leg kicks steadily taking over, leading to a swingy but clear decision for the former title challenger once he’s dialed in and walking Martinez down.
Why David Martinez Will Win
Martinez comes in riding a wave of momentum that Vera simply doesn’t have right now.
The Mexican is 13-1 with ten knockouts and an eight-fight win streak, including a violent knee-and-punches finish of Saimon Oliveira and a clean decision over Rob Font that proved he can win both chaos and minutes at UFC level. Stylistically, his high-paced, combination-heavy offense and willingness to lead fit well against Vera’s historically low-volume, slow-starting approach.
If Martinez gets off first, chopping at the legs and body while forcing Vera backward, he can bank early rounds before Vera’s trademark late surge ever arrives. Martinez also brings the confidence and durability of someone who has never been finished, with solid defensive awareness and enough wrestling to keep this largely in his preferred striking realm.
Unless Vera can seriously hurt him with a single counter or lock up something sneaky in a scramble, the likeliest outcome is Martinez out-working him in the pocket, landing the cleaner volume, and walking away from Mexico City with a statement decision over a fading former title challenger.
Final Chito Vera-David Martinez Prediction & Pick
Martinez is 13-1 on a nine-fight heater, with a pressure-heavy, combination striking game and enough wrestling to keep fights where he wants them, which is bad news for a slow-starter like Vera. Vera’s durability and late-fight danger are proven, but he’s 1-4 in his last five and has increasingly struggled to pull the trigger, often giving away early rounds on low output.
Against someone who throws in volume, targets legs and body, and doesn’t mind sitting in the pocket, those slow starts can quickly become a three-round hole. Martinez has already shown over three UFC bouts that he can both blitz opponents for finishes and bank workmanlike decisions when the kill shot doesn’t come.
Unless Vera can seriously wobble him with a single counter or spring a late submission, the most likely outcome at altitude is Martinez out-working him in the pocket, winning minutes with volume and pressure, and taking a clear decision that further cements his surge up the bantamweight rankings.
Final Chito Vera-David Martinez Prediction & Pick: David Martinez (-325), Over 2.5 Rounds (-425)
