UFC Mexico City: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh continues on the prelims with a bout between Erik Silva and Francis Marshall in the featherweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Silva-Marshall prediction and pick.
Erik “King” Silva (9-3) snapped into the UFC with a DWCS TKO finish, but is 0-2 in the Octagon after a submission loss to T.J. Brown and a first-round KO defeat to Muhammad Naimov, putting real pressure on him to finally deliver as he comes into his fight this weekend against Francis Marshall.
Francis “Fire” Marshall (8-3) has alternated results lately, edging Dennis Buzukja by split decision before dropping a tight split call to Mairon Santos, leaving him 2-3 in the UFC but still a livewire pressure grappler with sneaky power as he comes into his fight this weekend against Erik Silva.
UFC Mexico City Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Mexico City Odds: Erik Silva-Francis Marshall Odds
Erik Silva: +525
Francis Marshall: -750
Over 1.5 rounds: -135
Under 1.5 rounds: +105
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Why Erik Silva Will Win
Silva has the more polished striking game and carries real one-shot power, especially early, while Marshall can be hittable when he pressures in straight lines. If Silva maintains range and denies easy level changes, his sharper boxing and counters can exploit Marshall’s defensive lapses.
The Venezuelan also brings a strong grappling base, with solid top control and a proven submission threat if he’s the one initiating clinches and scrambles. Marshall’s wrestling is good, but he can stall out if his first entries are stuffed, and his cardio has faded under extended resistance.
Add in Silva’s higher-level experience and the urgency of chasing his first UFC win, and you can see a path where he wins rounds behind damage and takedown defense. If he banks early momentum and forces Marshall into desperate shots, Silva is live for a late finish or clear decision on the scorecards.
Why Francis Marshall Will Win
Marshall’s best path is weaponizing his relentless pace and volume against Silva’s sometimes fragile defense and gas tank. Over three rounds, his willingness to throw in combination and stay in Silva’s face can force the Venezuelan into uncomfortable, retreating exchanges.
Wrestling and clinch sequences also favor Marshall over time, even if he isn’t finishing takedowns clean, because repeated level changes will sap Silva’s explosiveness. Once Silva’s initial burst fades, Marshall’s chain wrestling and ability to mix strikes into entries make it harder for Silva to time big counters.
Marshall has already shown he can survive adversity and keep output high deep into fights, even in his split decision loss to Mairon Santos. If he stays defensively responsible early, his cumulative body work, clinch control and top time can break Silva’s rhythm and pull away on the scorecards in Mexico City.
Final Erik Silva-Francis Marshall Prediction & Pick
This is a volatile matchup, but the dynamics slightly favor Francis Marshall over Erik Silva. Marshall is the more consistent round-winner, with higher striking volume and reliable wrestling that judges tend to reward over Silva’s sporadic moments of offense.
Silva’s danger is front-loaded; he throws hard early but has struggled to maintain pace and durability across three hard rounds at UFC level. If he cannot hurt Marshall clean in the opening frame, his output and defensive awareness have historically dipped as the fight wears on.
Marshall’s youth, cardio and ability to mix takedowns with steady boxing combinations should allow him to bank control time and numbers, especially late. Provided he avoids a big early counter or getting stuck underneath in extended scrambles, the most likely outcome is Marshall pulling away on the cards with pressure, clinch work and activity for a competitive but clear decision win.
Final Erik Silva-Francis Marshall Prediction & Pick: Francis Marshall (-750), Over 1.5 Rounds (-135)
