UFC Mexico City: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh continues on the prelims with a bout between Macy Chiasson and Ailin Pérez in the women's bantamweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Chiasson-Pérez prediction and pick.
Macy Chiasson (10-5) comes in off back-to-back defeats for the first time in her UFC career, dropping decisions to Yana Santos and Ketlen Vieira. Chiasson has her back against the wall and could be fighting for her UFC life as she comes into his fight this weekend against Ailin Perez.
Ailin Pérez (12-2) has surged with five straight UFC wins, grinding out Karol Rosa before overwhelming Darya Zheleznyakova and fending off Joselyne Edwards with relentless clinch pressure and top control. The bullish Argentine brings swagger, cardio, and smothering wrestling as she comes into his fight this weekend against Macy Chiasson.
UFC Mexico City Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Mexico City Odds: Macy Chiasson-Ailin Pérez Odds
Macy Chiasson: +150
Ailin Pérez: -180
Over 2.5 rounds: -345
Under 2.5 rounds: +250
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Why Macy Chiasson Will Win
Chiasson has the proven high-end resume and tools to blunt Pérez’s pressure game over three rounds. At her best, she is a huge, physical bantamweight who can use her 5-foot-11 frame, long jab, and teeps to keep Pérez at the end of her strikes and off easy entries.
Where Pérez thrives is chaining takedowns from the clinch, but Chiasson is a strong clinch fighter herself, with wins built on muscling opponents to the fence and threatening front chokes and back takes. If she’s the one initiating clinches, she can make Pérez’s wrestling look much more ordinary and force extended stalemates that favor experience over raw grind.
Recent form also suggests there is still real upside left in Chiasson; finishes of Mayra Bueno Silva and a slick submission of Pannie Kianzad showed improved offensive variety and killer instinct when she gets dominant positions. If she shows up dialed in, defends early takedowns, and keeps the fight largely at her preferred mid-range, Chiasson’s size, experience, and more polished striking should be enough to edge a competitive but clear decision in Mexico City.
Why Ailin Pérez Will Win
Perez’s clearest path to victory is turning this into an ugly, grinding fight where her pace and wrestling smother Chiasson’s length and striking. She’s been on a tear, winning five straight by chaining takedowns, riding heavy top control and making opponents work far harder than they’re used to.
Chiasson has struggled when opponents consistently get underneath her reach and either crowd her against the fence or drag her down and force her to wrestle for prolonged stretches. Perez excels exactly in that phase; her body-locks, inside trips and dogged mat returns can sap Chiasson’s gas tank, especially at altitude in Mexico City.
Momentum is also firmly on Perez’s side, while Chiasson enters off consecutive losses and questions about her ability to sustain form over three hard rounds. If Perez avoids big shots early, stays disciplined with her entries and constantly pushes a wrestling-heavy tempo, she’s well positioned to bank control time, pile up damage from top and earn another statement decision over a ranked foe.
Final Macy Chiasson-Ailin Pérez Prediction & Pick
This is one of the trickier fights on the card to call, but the momentum and stylistic edges lean slightly toward Ailin Pérez. She’s riding a multi-fight UFC win streak built on pace, physicality and smothering wrestling, and that game can travel well in Mexico City’s altitude.
Chiasson is the more proven name on paper, with wins over established contenders and a clear size advantage, but her results have been inconsistent and she can struggle against dogged wrestlers. If she cannot consistently keep Pérez off her hips and away from the fence, long stretches of the fight may be spent defending takedowns and working from disadvantageous positions.
Pérez, by contrast, has shown she’s comfortable making things ugly, grinding in the clinch, landing short shots and happily winning minutes rather than hunting for highlight-reel moments. Unless Chiasson can punish entries early or lock up a front choke in a scramble, the likeliest outcome is Pérez out-hustling her over three rounds, piling up control time and edges in activity for a hard-fought decision win.
Final Macy Chiasson-Ailin Pérez Prediction & Pick: Ailin Perez (-180), Over 2.5 Rounds (-345)
