We're back with another betting prediction and pick for the UFC Mexico City Main Card, this next bout taking place in the Lightweight (155) Division. Mexico's own Daniel Zellhuber will welcome King Green of California in a scrap you won't want to miss. Check our UFC odds series for the Zellhuber-Green prediction and pick.
Daniel Zellhuber (15-3) is currently 3-3 inside the UFC since 2022. After a performance bonus win over Francisco Prado, he's lost back-to-back fights heading into this bout, hoping to redeem himself in front of a home Mexican crowd. Zellhuber stands 6-foot-1 with a 77-inch reach.
King Green (33-17-1) has gone 14-12-1-1 since joining the UFC back in 2013. After facing the likes of Paddy Pimblett and Mauricio Ruffy, he bounced back with a win over Lance Gibson Jr. his last time out and will look to build upon that momentum on Saturday. Green stands 5-foot-10 with a 71-inch reach.
UFC Mexico City Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Mexico City Odds: Daniel Zellhuber-King Green Odds
Daniel Zellhuber: -500
King Green: +380
Over 2.5 rounds: -135
Under 2.5 rounds: +105
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Why Daniel Zellhuber Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Michael Johnson – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Daniel Zellhuber came into his last bout as the -850 betting favorite against 39-year old Michael Johnson, failing to convert on the advantage his last time out. Michael Johnson had one of his best performances in recent memory and Zellhuber was clearly stunned by the effective and consistent striking of his opponent. The loss should be a learning opportunity for Zellhuber as he'll have to learn not to underestimate his opponents, especially facing another crafty veteran like King Green.
Zellhuber will once again own a significant height and reach advantage during this fight, but he'll have to utilize it from the opening round instead of waiting to settle into a striking groove. Zellhuber has started slow in the past and if he allows King Green to gain confidence in the striking, he may struggle to play catch-up during the later rounds.
Zellhuber will need to remain consistent with his low leg kicks, as he has in the past, but he'll need to be much more aggressive in the opening exchanges to gain the respect of his opponent. His defensive striking guard will also need to improve as he took a number of flush shots from his last opponent.
Why King Green Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Lance Gibson Jr. – S DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 11 KO/TKO, 9 SUB
King Green put forth another gutsy effort his last time out against Lance Gibson Jr., controlling the striking exchanges and not allowing his opponent too much momentum in the wrestling. While the final verdict came by split decision, Green dominated the striking totals 74-35 and managed to negate much of Gibson's wrestling attempts. This time around, expect King Green to immediately pressure Zellhuber from the opening bell in trying to force his hand in the striking.
King Green has had his highs and lows while in the UFC, but we've seen flashes of striking greatness when he's able to feel loose and find his striking rhythm. His boxing is very underrated and the way he grabs his opponents' lead jab could become an issue for Zellhuber early on. Expect Green to pull out all his veteran tricks in trying to frustrate his younger opponent.
Zellhuber will have to earn the respect of Green early, but if he fails to do so, it'll only feed into the confidence of King Green. When he's able to find a home in his lead jab and keep his feet moving, Green is most dangerous late in the rounds when opponents are usually conserving their energy. Expect a constant and frustrating attack out of Green in this one.
Final Daniel Zellhuber-King Green Prediction & Pick
Daniel Zellhuber will come into this fight as the heavy favorite once again, looking to avenge his last upset loss in front of his home country fans. King Green will be no small task and we've seen flashes of great boxing from Green the last few fights, so don't be surprised if he's able to pressure Zellhuber early with his boxing.
Still, this moment seems too important for Zellhuber to flounder and his last loss to Michael Johnson should have been a huge teaching moment in his young career. His technical Muay Thai style is enough to carry him towards a victory in this bout if he doesn't let the bright lights get to him.
For our final prediction, we'll roll with Daniel Zellhuber to redeem himself with a win following back-to-back losses. Still, expect King Green to greatly frustrate Zellhuber in the process, likely making for a close decision on the scorecards.
Final Daniel Zellhuber-King Green Prediction & Pick: Daniel Zellhuber (-500); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-135)
