The UFC Mexico City Main card is almost here as we conclude the Prelims with this featured bout, taking place in the Middleweight (180) Division. Jose Medina of Bolivia will take on Brazil's Ryan Gandra in a battle of hopeful prospects. Check our UFC odds series for the Medina-Gandra prediction and pick.
Jose Medina (11-6) is still searching for his first UFC win following a 0-3 start. After getting a shot despite losing his Contender Series audition, Medina has been an exciting competitor and is always willing to step in on short notice. He stands six feet tall with a 74.5-inch reach.
Ryan Gandra (8-1) will make his UFC debut following a first-round knockout over Trent Miller in DWCS. He's won seven consecutive bouts heading into this debut, finishing all but one and coming into this fight the card's biggest betting favorite. Gandra stands 6-foot-1 with a 74.5-inch reach.
UFC Mexico City Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Mexico City Odds: Jose Medina-Ryan Gandra Odds
Jose Medina: +490
Ryan Gandra: -675
Over 1.5 rounds: -110
Under 1.5 rounds: -120
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Why Jose Medina Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Dusko Todorovic – SUB (rear naked choke, R1)
- Last 5: 1-4
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Jose Medina came up short once again during his last bout as Dusko Todorovic wasted no time in taking the back and finishing the fight quickly with a submission. Medina looked a bit out of his element during the short time in the cage, but Saturday brings a new opportunity to prove he belongs in the UFC. His proven toughness and ability to always give the fans a great show has carried him thus far, so this underdog spot will be nothing new for the fighter from Bolivia.
Medina wastes no time in squaring his opponent in the center of the octagon and letting his hands fly. While he may not be the most impressive athlete, his hands are deceptively slick and he's able to string clean combinations together consistently. However, his 46% striking defense 5.07 strikes absorbed per minute will have to see drastic improvements if he wants to keep his spot on the roster.
This could be a situation where Jose Medina has his back against the wall, but don't expect him to fight with an ounce of caution or fear. If his 27% takedown defense isn't tested at some point, Medina could see a strong start with his hands that leads to a winning first round. If he's able to gain confident early, it'll make Medina all the more dangerous as the fight wears on.
Why Ryan Gandra Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Trent Miller – TKO (punches, R1)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Ryan Gandra has been a steamroller heading into this UFC debut, winning seven-straight while notching four knockouts and two submissions in the process. He's currently ranked as the No. 12 middleweight in Brazil and given what we saw during his Contender Series audition, it's expected that he'll be trying for the knockout during this debut. Against a willing dance partner like Medina, Gandra could ultimately get that wish.
Ryan Gandra presents a very defensive stance when striking and typically allows his opponent to throw the initial strikes in the exchange. He keeps his hands high and close to his head, utilizing great boxing head movement in the pocket. Gandra does his best work when countering, so expect him to put on a clinic against an eager opponent willing to stand and strike with him.
Gandra has put his power on display numerous times in the lead up to this fight, but be on the lookout for his submission game as he's made improvements with his grappling. Jose Medina has notably struggled in the past against effective grapplers, so don't be surprised if Gandra looks to show off some new wrinkles to his game.
Final Jose Medina-Ryan Gandra Prediction & Pick
The UFC Mexico City Prelims will conclude with a banger of a featured fight as both men will be hunting for the knockout. Jose Medina searches for the elusive first win and he's incapable of a boring performance, so expect him to be eager to exchange in the center of the octagon.
However, I expect the counter-punching and head movement of Ryan Gandra to be too overwhelming for Medina after the first few minutes. Gandra also packs serious power when he's able to land, so don't expect Medina to be able to withstand too many clean shots.
For our final prediction, we'll roll with Ryan Gandra to win this fight with a knockout or submission inside the distance. While Medina may put forth a valiant effort to escape the first round, it's only a matter of time before Gandra lands the punch that ends this fight.
Final Jose Medina-Ryan Gandra Prediction & Pick: Ryan Gandra (-675); UNDER 1.5 Rounds (-120)
