The time has come and the UFC is back in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil for another exciting Main Card, opening with this bout in the Featherweight (145) Division. Brazil's Lucas Almeida will take on Michael Aswell of Houston, Texas in a frantic scrap on the feet. Check our UFC odds series for the Almeida-Aswell prediction and pick.
Lucas Almeida (15-4) is 2-3 since joining the UFC in 2022. Despite failing to secure a win on DWCS, Almeida has gotten a chance in the UFC thanks to his exciting fighting style. However, he's 1-3 in his last four fights and missed weight last time out, so he'll need to look sharp as his back is against the wall in this one. Almeida stands 5-foot-11 with a 71-inch reach.
Michael Aswell (10-3) will make his second UFC appearance following a debut loss to Bolaji Oki via unanimous decision. Aswell, too, floundered during his Dana White's Contender Series audition, but has managed to claw his way into the promotion and comes into this bout the betting favorite. Aswell stands 5-foot-8 with a 69-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Rio Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Rio Odds: Lucas Almeida-Michael Aswell Odds
Lucas Almeida: +114
Michael Aswell: -135
Over 2.5 rounds: -175
Under 2.5 rounds: +135
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Lucas Almeida Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Danny Silva – S DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 5 SUB
Lucas Almeida comes into this bout following a razor-thin decision loss to Danny Silva in March 2025. He was slightly out-paced on the striking numbers and fell victim to a takedown that could have tilted the decision. Nevertheless, Almeida always manages an exciting fight thanks to his solid chin and fearless fighting style. Against Aswell, being the more aggressive side could bode well for him during this particular matchup.
While Almeida does his best work on the feet with his striking, he will have the slight advantage on the ground thanks to his five wins by submission. Aswell is no slouch, but he's certainly not on the grappling level of Almeida in terms of transitions and submission attempts. Almeida will prove to be dangerous on the ground if he's able to find an advantageous position.
Improving on his 44% striking defense will be key here for Almeida as his opponent tallied a wild 9.1 significant strikes landed per minute during his debut. Almeida also can't rely on his opponent to drop his cardio at any point, so it'll take the best version of Almeida to notch the upset during this fight.
Why Michael Aswell Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Bolaji Oki– U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO
Michael Aswell's UFC debut against Bolaji Oki was a wild one as the prospect managed 118 significant strikes during his opening fight. While he was out-matched by a much more talented Oki, he did a great job hanging in the fight and keeping his opponent guessing with intermittent bursts of offense. He'll need to improve his game even more against another wild striker in Lucas Almeida.
Michael Aswell sports a 57% takedown defense up to this point, but we haven't really seen him mix things up on the ground all too much in recent fights. Depending on what approach Almeida decides to take during this fight, Aswell may have to fight in a reactionary mode given the takedown attempts and aggressive striking blitzes.
Still, Aswell can gain the respect of his opponent by standing in the center of the cage and not backing down. He's proven his chin can withstand a back-and-forth brawl and he won't be dealing with as much of a power discrepancy this time around. The betting odds are indicative of such and Aswell will have a much better chance to display his skills during this matchup.
Final Lucas Almeida-Michael Aswell Prediction & Pick
We should have another fun fight on our hands as both sides are willing to throw caution to the wind and scrap in the center of the cage. We have to give the slight grappling advantage to Almeida due to his previous submission wins, but it's not likely that we'll see either fighter spending too much time on the ground during this one. Instead, expect both sides to not back down from a striking brawl in the opening minutes.
While Michael Aswell is the slight betting favorite, we have to like the numerous looks Almeida has seen in his five fights with the UFC. He's the more experienced fighter and could be willing to do more over three rounds to get the win.
For our final prediction, we're going to take a small chance on the betting underdog to get the win. Given the support of the home country crowd, he should see an added boost during this fight that could put him over the edge if the fight heads towards a judges' decision.
Final Lucas Almeida-Michael Aswell Prediction & Pick: Lucas Almeida (+114); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-175)
