UFC Rio: Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot continues on the prelims with a fight between Lucas Rocha and Stewart Nicoll in the flyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Rocha-Nicoll prediction and pick.
Lucas Rocha (17-2) enters UFC Rio after dropping his promotional debut via unanimous decision to Clayton Carpenter, following a six-fight win streak on the regional scene. Still only 25, Rocha now looks to rebound as he comes into his fight this weekend against Stewart Nicoll.
Stewart Nicoll (8-1) dropped his UFC debut via first-round guillotine choke to Jesus Aguilar at UFC 305, ending his perfect eight-fight win streak that included seven finishes. The Australian enters off a year-long layoff as he comes into his fight this weekend against Lucas Rocha.
Here are the UFC Rio Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Rio odds: Lucas Rocha-Stewart Nicoll odds
Lucas Rocha: -115
Stewart Nicoll: -105
Over 2.5 rounds: +114
Under 2.5 rounds: -145
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Why Lucas Rocha will win
- Last Fight: (L) Clayton Carpenter – SUB R2
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 14 (10 KO/TKO/4 SUB)
Rocha’s path is built on pace and layered combinations that force reactive defense from Nicoll, who struggled under counters and scrambles in his debut. Expect Rocha to establish jab-low kick entries early, then punctuate exchanges with tight twos and body work to sap Nicoll’s bounce and timing.
The Brazilian’s defensive grappling held up through extended exchanges against Clayton Carpenter, showing urgency on underhooks and quick stand-ups that should blunt early shot attempts. If Nicoll over-pursues clinches, Rocha’s collar-tie uppercuts and short hooks can punish entries and dissuade level changes.
At range, Rocha’s shot selection is cleaner, and his feints should draw Nicoll’s high guard, opening the calf and liver kick lanes that slow retreats. With Nicoll’s neck exposure during scrambles recently exploited by a guillotine, Rocha can threaten front-headlock transitions to re-set or score damage.
As momentum swings, Rocha’s superior combination depth and ring craft—pivots, resets, and fence exits—favor him in prolonged striking minutes. Over three rounds, those incremental wins add up, pointing to Rocha pulling ahead in volume and impact.
Why Stewart Nicoll will win
- Last Fight: (L) Jesus Aguilar – SUB R1
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 7 (4 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Nicoll’s path to victory hinges on his grappling-oriented aggression and knack for capitalizing on transitional moments. After a rough debut, Nicoll has focused on tightening his submission setups and timing, making him much more dangerous when he forces scrambles or gets top control.
Rocha’s willingness to engage in prolonged clinch sequences opens doors for Nicoll’s trips and body lock takedowns, where Nicoll’s transitions to the back or mount can rack up control time and submission threats. If Rocha overextends on combinations or fails to manage range, Nicoll can shoot underneath, working to wear out Rocha’s base and slow his high-volume offense.
On the feet, Nicoll’s counterhooks and ability to land short elbows inside make him tricky when opponents press forward without setup. Given Rocha’s occasional defensive lapses against flurries, Nicoll can catch him with opportunistic offense during openings and disrupt his rhythm.
Should Nicoll avoid getting clipped in early exchanges and maintain top control through the middle rounds, his finish-oriented grappling and improved submission awareness could be decisive. In a tight affair, Nicoll’s opportunistic ground game and resilience are key weapons to defeat Rocha at UFC Rio on Saturday.
Final Lucas Rocha-Stewart Nicoll prediction & pick
This matchup appears closely matched on paper, but Rocha’s combination of youth, experience, and striking craft gives him the edge as the fight unfolds. Both men are proven finishers, yet Rocha’s defensive improvements and high-volume combinations allow him to manage range, score damage, and keep Nicoll reacting.
Nicoll will threaten with takedown attempts and brief spells of top control, but Rocha’s urgency to return to his feet and defend submissions has steadily improved since his debut. In the clinch, Rocha throws sharp knees and cuts angles to negate Nicoll’s body lock game, making clean entries less frequent.
On the feet, Rocha lands with more variety and accuracy, mixing body shots and calf kicks to disrupt Nicoll’s rhythm and chip away at his cardio with each passing minute. If the fight reaches the later rounds, Rocha’s activity and shot selection help him pull away on the scorecards even if he faces adversity during grappling scrambles.
Barring a slip into a submission trap, Rocha’s advantages in striking volume and composure under pressure are likely to secure a competitive but clear decision win at UFC Rio on Saturday.
Final Lucas Rocha-Stewart Nicoll Prediction & Pick: Lucas Rocha (-115), Over 2.5 Rounds (+114)
