UFC 316: Merab Dvalishvili versus Sean O'Malley 2 continues on the prelims with a fight between MarQuel Mederos and Mark Choinski on Saturday in the lightweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Mederos-Choinski prediction and pick.

MarQuel Mederos (10-1) enters UFC 316 riding momentum from a gritty split-decision win over Austin Hubbard at UFC Mexico City, where he showcased sharp striking and damage over control.

Prior to that, Mederos extended his finish-heavy streak with a first-round knockout of Issa Isakov on Dana White’s Contender Series as he comes into this high-profile matchup against UFC debutant Mark Choinski.

Mark Choinski (8-0) makes his UFC debut after a dominant run on the regional scene, most recently submitting John Ramirez with a first-round rear-naked choke at Anthony Pettis FC 16. Before that, Choinski earned a unanimous decision over John Simon, showcasing both finishing ability and composure ahead of his debut at UFC 316.

Here are the UFC 316 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings. 

UFC 316 odds: MarQuel Mederos-Mark Choinski odds

MarQuel Mederos: -205

Mark Choinski: +170

Over 2.5 rounds: -188

Under 2.5 rounds: +145

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Why MarQuel Mederos will win

  • Last Fight: (W) Austin Hubbard – DEC
  • Last 5: 5-0
  • Finishes: 6 (6 KO/TKO)

MarQuel Mederos is primed to defeat Mark Choinski at UFC 316 thanks to his proven UFC experience and technical striking acumen. Mederos enters the bout riding an eight-fight win streak, including two gritty UFC victories over Austin Hubbard and Landon Quinones.

His ability to manage distance, set traps, and work behind a crisp jab makes him a difficult puzzle for any newcomer to solve. Mederos has demonstrated composure even under pressure, and his high-level training at FactoryX Muay Thai has sharpened both his offensive and defensive skills as evidenced by his 62% striking defense and 85% takedown defense.

In contrast, Choinski is making his UFC debut, and while he boasts an undefeated record and a strong collegiate wrestling background, he has yet to face the level of competition Mederos has already conquered. Mederos’ range management and cleaner technique could neutralize Choinski's pressure-heavy brawling style.

Suppose Mederos stays disciplined, maintains distance, and avoids getting drawn into a wild exchange. In that case, he should be able to dictate the fight’s tempo and outpoint or even finish Choinski as the rounds progress. Expect Mederos’ experience and skillset to shine through in this pivotal lightweight clash.

Why Mark Choinski will win

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  • Last Fight: (W) John Ramirez – SUB R1
  • Last 5: 5-0
  • Finishes: 6 (1 KO/TKO/5 SUB)

Mark Choinski is poised to make a statement in his UFC debut against MarQuel Mederos at UFC 316, bringing an undefeated 8-0 record and a relentless grappling arsenal to the octagon.

Choinski has finished five of his eight wins by submission, most recently dispatching John Ramirez with a first-round rear-naked choke at Anthony Pettis FC 16 and has shown the ability to overwhelm opponents early with pressure and slick ground transitions.

Training out of Roufusport MMA Academy, Choinski’s aggressive style and finishing instincts make him a dangerous matchup for anyone in the lightweight division. While Mederos is a skilled striker with UFC experience, Choinski’s path to victory lies in his ability to close the distance, negate Mederos’ reach and striking, and drag the fight to the mat where he excels.

Mederos has yet to face a submission specialist of Choinski’s caliber, and if Choinski can survive the early exchanges and impose his wrestling, he has the tools to either submit Mederos or control him for three rounds. Expect Choinski’s pressure, durability, and submission game to be the difference as he looks to announce himself as the newest threat in the UFC’s lightweight ranks.

Final MarQuel Mederos-Mark Choinski prediction & pick

With MarQuel Mederos and Mark Choinski set to kick off UFC 316, fans can expect a compelling clash between two surging lightweights. Mederos, now 10-1, enters with back-to-back UFC victories over Austin Hubbard and Landon Quinones, showcasing his sharp striking, composure, and ability to handle high-level competition.

His experience inside the Octagon, combined with a 62% striking defense and 85% takedown defense, gives him a clear edge against newcomers. Mederos’ measured approach and technical skillset are likely to test Choinski’s resolve, especially as the fight progresses into deeper rounds.

Choinski, undefeated at 8-0, is making his UFC debut after dominating the regional scene and finishing six of his eight wins. His grappling and submission prowess could pose problems if he’s able to close the distance and drag Mederos to the mat.

However, the leap in competition is significant, and Mederos’ ability to control range and defend takedowns may neutralize Choinski’s primary weapons.

Expect Choinski to have moments early, but as the fight wears on, Mederos’ experience and striking should take over. The prediction: Mederos survives early grappling threats and pulls away late, earning a hard-fought decision or late TKO victory.

Final MarQuel Mederos-Mark Choinski prediction & pick: MarQuel Mederos (-205), over 2.5 rounds (-188)