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In the first-ever live combat sports event on Netflix, Jake Paul (10-1) will take on the biggest name of his career when he steps into the ring with boxing icon Mike Tyson (50-6, 2 NC). We will continue our boxing odds series with a Tyson-Paul prediction and pick.
Tyson, 58, will step into the ring as a professional for the first time since 2005. Since then, he has competed twice in an exhibition setting, most recently in 2020 against former four-division champion Roy Jones Jr. As one of the biggest stars in boxing history, Tyson is the former undisputed heavyweight champion and still holds the record for being the youngest titleholder in the division's history.
Paul, 27, is significantly less accomplished than his opponent but has gone a respectable 10-1 since beginning his journey as a professional boxer in 2020. Since picking up the first loss of his career to Tommy Fury in late 2023, Paul enters the matchup with Tyson riding a four-fight win streak with his most recent win over BKFC star Mike Perry.
Here are the Tyson-Paul odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Boxing Odds: Mike Tyson-Jake Paul Odds
Mike Tyson: +194
Jake Paul: -245
Over 5.5 Rounds: -126
Under 5.5 Rounds: -102
How to Watch Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul
Time: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
TV/Stream: Netflix
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (free trial)*
Why Mike Tyson Will Win
As the man he once was, Tyson still has the fame and aura of the polarizing figure that led to his rise to fame. Regardless, at this stage of his career, his paths to victory are minimal. If Tyson is to win, he needs to win by knockout, and it has to be within the first three rounds.
Despite many projecting that Tyson would be the bigger fighter, the two weighed in at practically the same number on Thursday. Tyson would still be smart to attempt to weigh on the inexperienced Paul early in the clinch. Either way, despite Paul not having the best gas tank, Tyson's age puts him at a cardio disadvantage.
In his brief career, whenever Paul has been in trouble, it has been when he is pressured into power shots. He has yet to be knocked down, but Tyron Woodley had him on skates in his fourth professional fight and Nate Diaz made him uncomfortable late with his relentless pressure. Tyson will not be able to drag Paul into deep waters but if he can back him into a corner and unload early, things could get rough for ‘The Problem Child.'
Why Jake Paul Will Win
Since Paul has become used to fighting smaller opponents, he has typically taken the role of being the bigger boxer with the power advantage. That should not be his approach this time. Instead, the early rounds need to be a case of damage control for Paul, who needs to recognize that his older opponent simply has two to three good rounds in him.
Paul has never been known for his movement but it has improved significantly over time. In this fight, sticking a jab and circling the ring will be his best bet. At this stage of their careers, Paul can certainly win an all-out brawl with Tyson, but doing so would be playing with fire. Working the body would be another smart idea for Paul, who holds every possible advantage as long as he does not get backed into a corner early or allow his approach to turn sloppy.
Final Tyson-Paul Prediction & Pick
Tyson certainly is in incredible shape for his age and looked decent against Roy Jones Jr., but there is still no reason this fight should be anything more than an exhibition. Even considering the Jones Jr. fight, four more years have passed since then, and Jones Jr. has since lost to semi-retired MMA fighter Anthony Pettis. Yes, it is still Mike Tyson, but 58 is 58 no matter who it is.
Perhaps Tyson can catch him early but Paul, for as much as people want to discredit his career, is not “chinny.” The same cannot be said for Tyson, who, at 58 years old, has not been legitimately hit in the head in over 20 years. People love to say that power is the last thing to go but at this point, everything has gone for Tyson. In their athletic primes, Tyson wins this fight with one arm. In 2024, there is no reason to believe that Paul would have taken this fight knowing the significant risk of a humiliating loss if he was not nearly 100 percent confident in himself.
Final Tyson-Paul Prediction & Pick: Jake Paul ML (-205), Over 5.5 rounds (-112)
