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Texas seeks to flex its muscles when it hosts struggling Mississippi State in Week 5 at Darrell K Royal Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Mississippi State-Texas prediction and pick.
The Longhorns – currently the No. 1 team in the country – are coming off a 51-3 win against UL Monroe, despite starting quarterback Quinn Ewers being sidelined with an injury. Texas has him listed as questionable for this matchup, but even if he isn't under center, Arch Manning has proven his worth as the best backup quarterback in college football.
Meanwhile, the story is very different for Mississippi State, which lost 45-28 to Florida in Week 4. As if the 1-3 start wasn't brutal enough, the Bulldogs must replace Blake Shapen under center after he suffered a season-ending shoulder injury.
Here are the College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Mississippi State-Texas Odds
Mississippi State: +37.5 (-110)
Moneyline: N/A
Texas: -37.5 (-110)
Moneyline: N/A
Over: 61.5 (-110)
Under: 61.5 (-110)
How to Watch Mississippi State vs. Texas
Time: 4:15 p.m. ET/1:15 p.m. PT
TV: SEC Network
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why Mississippi State Could Cover The Spread/Win
There simply isn't a lot to work with in this spot.
Shapen was Mississippi State's best asset with his ability to make plays with his arm, having completed 68.5 percent of his throws for 974 yards, eight touchdowns, and only one interception. However, Lebby was hired for his offensive wizardry, so perhaps he can craft a gameplan that allows the Bulldogs to find points. Michael Van Buren Jr. – a true freshman – steps in at quarterback after going 7-of-13 for 100 yards against the Gators.
A way to make things easier for the shorthanded offense? Force turnovers. Mississippi State has just three takeaways through four games, but that number could increase against a Texas team that ranks 69th nationally with 5 turnovers (four interceptions and a fumble) this season. Forcing mistakes is always a recipe for an upset or, in this scenario, a closer game than the five-touchdown-plus spread may indicate.
There's no way around the fact that Mississippi State is going to need to play its best game of the season even to make this competitive, but this is still an SEC team with a lot of talent.
Speaking of talent…
Why Texas Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Longhorns just have so many playmakers to work with on this roster.
Heisman frontrunner out with an injury? No worries, the No. 1 player in the 2023 class can lead the offense to 50-plus points. Injuries decimate the running back depth in the preseason? Have no fear, Jerrick Gibson (42 CARs, 210 YDs, 3 TDs) and Jaydon Blue (45 CARs, 203 YDs, 4 total TDs) are here to produce lots of yards and touchdowns. Don't want opposing teams to score? Works for the Longhorns, who currently lead the nation in scoring defense in allowing just 5.5 points per game.
And that's where this team could thrive in this particular matchup. Van Buren has the daunting task of replacing a quarterback who was doing everything for the Mississippi State offense, and he has to try to pick up where Shapen left off. Unfortunately, he has to do it in a road game at Texas in his first collegiate start. That is not ideal, and the Longhorns could capitalize on defense with game-changing turnovers right off the bat to swing the momentum in their favor.
To stay on that topic, Texas has eclipsed Mississippi State in nearly every notable statistical category through the first four weeks of the season. That's why this is such a huge spread, and it also helps that the Longhorns have covered in every game thus far, while the Bulldogs are 1-3 ATS to this point.
These kinds of games aren't thrilling to bet on since it's this big of a number in a conference game, but if there's one that could justify it, this may be it. That's how good Texas has been early on, and it's also how frustrating things have been for the Bulldogs. The Longhorns could rack up points with Ewers or Manning at the helm and use their defense to stifle Mississippi State's offensive production.
That's how Texas covers the large spread.
Final Mississippi State-Texas Prediction & Pick
There's no reason to overthink this matchup pitting the SEC's best team against the SEC's worst team.
Texas has been better in almost every facet of the game, and it should dominate on the line of scrimmage to create big plays to cruise to a convincing victory.
The Longhorns are the pick.
Final Mississippi State-Texas Prediction & Pick: Texas -37.5 (-110)
