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The second-place Atlanta Braves will be eager to get back on track as they face off with their National League counterparts in the Cincinnati Reds on Friday evening. Join us for our MLB odds series, where our Braves-Reds prediction and pick will be revealed for all to see.
After getting pounded by Philadelphia 14-4 0n Thursday, the Braves can take a breath of fresh air with their ace LHP Max Fried taking the mound. Through 15 starts total, Fried is an impressive 7-2 with the 15th best ERA in the league at 2.77. Now at 44-33, this upcoming Fourth of July weekend series against the Reds could be exactly what the doctor ordered to inch even closer to the Mets' season-long division lead in the NL East.
With one of the worst records in all of the sport, the Reds simply must do whatever it takes to start coming out victorious or else their season will quickly be over in the month of July. Tasked with starting the series off right for the Reds will be the lefty Mike Minor, who is 1-4 with a ghastly 7.74 ERA in his five games started.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Braves-Reds MLB odds.
MLB odds: Braves-Reds Odds
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (-160)
Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (+132)
Over: 9.5 (-110)
Under: 9.5 (-110)
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Why The Braves Could Cover the Spread
Six days have gone by since the departure of star outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr, as the Braves slugger could be making a return to the lineup after leaving the game last Saturday due to injury after fouling off a ball off of his foot.
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The tough outing against the Phillies yesterday signaled the conclusion of a ten-game stretch versus teams with records above .500 in which the Braves went 6-4 overall. While the Braves have only been 18-18 against squads with winning marks, they have thrived when matched up with lesser teams with a 26-15 overall record. With the lowly Reds on tap for the defending champs, Atlanta has the opportunity to impose their will in dominating fashion on Friday.
With the seventh-most runs in baseball and the top slugging percentage at .439, Atlanta also shuts teams down with their extreme efficiency from the mound. An extremely lethal 3.82 ERA is a good place to start, as the Braves have also compiled 29 quality starts from starters to take the pressure off of the bullpen.
Not many hurlers can spin it like Max Fried can, as the 28-year-old is making the case to be an NL Cy Young candidate with his squad eleven games above the .500 mark. If there is a downside, Fried has scuffled against the Reds throughout his career including getting roughed up in his first start of the year when he allowed five earned runs off eight hits in a loss back on Apr. 7th. Fried is 1-2 with a 6.39 ERA in four appearances.
Why The Reds Could Cover the Spread
Losers in 10 of their previous 13 outings, the Reds need all the good fortune they can get in this one. After winning back-to-back matchups against the Giants and Cubs, Cincinnati went on to implode by giving up 23 runs in their last 18 innings played at Wrigley Field. Sitting in the cellar of the NL Central and now 16.5 games back of the division lead, the 2022 season has simply been disastrous for this once-proud franchise. Nevertheless, the sun rises on a new day filled with promise and endless possibilities. The Reds certainly must like the sound of that. Can the Reds get their season turned around before it's too late or is 2022 already a lost cause?
While Cincinnati as a whole has played pretty poorly this season, their hitting numbers suggest that they are a middle-of-the-road team in finding ways to cross the plate. 75 games into the campaign, the Reds have generated the 15th-most runs with 329 total and have been led by third-baseman Brandon Drury statistically. Drury has certainly rejuvenated some into his bat in 2o22 with a .274 average, 16 home runs, and 40 RBIs.
The Reds have been dreadful from the rubber through their first few months of the regular season, and if they can avoid shooting themselves in the foot, then bettors giving the Reds an outside shot in this one doesn't sound so crazy after all. The Reds will be desperate for lefty Mike Minor to show flashes of what he was able to accomplish a few short seasons ago as a Texas Ranger. Squaring off with his former team in the Braves, Minor may have an added dimension of motivation in this one as he gets ready to start things off on the hill for Cincinnati.
Final Braves-Reds Prediction & Pick
Call me crazy, but with both sides coming off shaky outings, the Reds may give the Braves a run for their money in this one. This matchup certainly is slightly more meaningful for Minor, and with the scorching hot CF Nick Senzel going 11-23 in his last seven games, there are a few paths to covering the spread against the defending champions on Friday.
Final Braves-Reds Pick: Reds +1.5 (+132)
