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The San Francisco Giants will take on the Miami Marlins on Thursday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Giants-Marlins prediction and pick.
Unsurprisingly, the Giants have been one of the better teams in the league this season. They've following up a 2021 NLDS appearance with a 27-22 start to the season, a record that has them ranked third in the hotly contested NL West. The Marlins haven't quite had the same success, as they've posted a 20-28 mark in a much easier division. Both teams need to book this game into the win column, so this should be a pretty entertaining matchup. Let's cut to the chase and get straight into the pick.
Here are the Giants-Marlins MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Giants-Marlins Odds
San Francisco Giants: +1.5 (-172)
Miami Marlins: -1.5 (+142)
Over: 7 (+104)
Under: 7 (-128)
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Why The Giants Could Cover The Spread
San Francisco has been one of the best offensive teams in the entire league. The Giants currently rank inside the top ten in batting average, slugging percentage, OBP, and OPS. They've also been red-hot at the plate recently, as they've scored five runs or more in four straight contests, with three of those games ending in wins. It's clear that this San Francisco offense is a challenging matchup for anyone, including Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara.
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There's something to be said for momentum in baseball, and the Marlins have precisely none of it as they come into this contest. Miami has been on a huge cold streak, losing nine of their last 12 ball games. A couple of those losses came against the Colorado Rockies, one of the worst teams in the National League. The Giants, on the other hand, have managed to take home five of their last eight contests. Included in those five wins were series victories against the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies.
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
The Marlins have a huge pitching advantage here. The Giants will entrust the start to pitcher Alex Wood, a guy who's struggled tremendously on the year. Wood has earned a 4.81 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP, and his most recent appearances have been even worse. Over his last seven starts, Wood's ERA has jumped to 5.61, with his WHIP increasing to 1.51. Over the course of the season, Wood has also given up terrible expected slugging percentage numbers and expected batting average stats. Miami has several players who are excellent in both of those categories. The Marlins have been a surprisingly good offensive team this season, and they should have absolutely no trouble continuing their success against Wood here.
Home field advantage will certainly benefit Miami in this contest. The Marlins have won slightly more when they play in LoanDepot Park, while the Giants earn far worse offensive stats across the board when they play on the road. Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara has also been slightly better at home, earning a lower ERA and WHIP when he pitches on his own turf.
Final Giants-Marlins Prediction & Pick
Neither side of the spread looks great here. The Marlins should cover pretty easily, but the odds make them an unappealing pick. Instead, the over should cash comfortably. Miami will likely light up Alex Wood, and the Giants can always be counted on for some offensive contribution.
Final Giants-Marlins Prediction & Pick: Over: 7 (+104)
