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The Miami Marlins will take on the Atlanta Braves on Friday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Marlins-Braves prediction and pick.
These teams entered the season with very different expectations. The Braves are the reigning World Series champions, and many expected them to make a good run at defending that crown this season. However, Atlanta has disappointed with a 21-24 record that has them 7.5 games out of first place in the division. Miami didn't quite have those same expectations as they entered the year. Miami was widely expected to be one of the worst teams in the MLB. The Marlins have been slightly better than that, earning an 18-24 mark to begin the season. This matchup between division rivals should be an entertaining one, so let's get into the pick.
Here are the Marlins-Braves MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB odds: Marlins-Braves Odds
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-182)
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+150)
Over: 9 (-105)
Under: 9 (-115)
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Why The Marlins Could Cover the Spread
Miami will face Atlanta starter Ian Anderson in this game. Anderson isn't an intimidating matchup for anyone, as his 4.07 ERA and 1.36 WHIP show. He's struggled mightily all season, especially in starts against the Marlins. The first time Miami faced Anderson, they tagged him for two runs over five innings. The righty allowed six hits and four walks in that game, so despite the minimal scoring, it was a pretty tough outing. The next time Anderson pitched to the Marlins, he gave up four runs over six innings. Six batters in the Miami lineup have a career batting average above .300 against Anderson, so it's clear that the Marlins are pretty comfortable in this matchup.
The Braves will be playing without their best player in this matchup. Center fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. has already been ruled out because of a quadriceps injury. Acuna is hitting .292 on the season with a .846 OPS, two rock-solid numbers. Without his stellar bat in the lineup, Atlanta will have to find offensive production elsewhere. The Braves lineup is significantly less intimidating with Acuna in the dugout.
Why The Braves Could Cover the Spread
The Braves don't face a particularly tough pitching matchup here either. The Marlins will send out Trevor Rogers to the mound for this game, something that doesn't typically work out well for Miami. Rogers has made eight starts, and none of them have gone well. He has a 5.20 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP on the year, two downright abysmal numbers. Rogers actually faced the Braves the last time he pitched, and it went about as well as anyone could expect. Atlanta rocked him for five runs and eight hits over four innings, handing Rogers a loss and one of his worst outings of the season. A similar offensive performance could be in store in this game.
Home field advantage will benefit the Braves in this game. Atlanta's offense has been far more productive when they play in Truist Park, as they see a jump in batting average, OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage on their home turf. The Marlins have similar home and away batting splits, with worse stats across the board when they play on the road. Overall, the venue of this matchup favors the Braves by a mile.
Final Marlins-Braves Prediction & Pick
Neither side of this spread looks appealing. The over, on the other hand, is an easy pick. Both pitchers have a history of struggling against the opposing team, and both offenses should have success in this game.
Final Marlins-Braves Prediction & Pick: Over: 9 (-104)
