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The Miami Marlins will battle the Cincinnati Reds as the two teams close out a four-game series on Thursday at the Great American Ballpark. It's time to continue our MLB odds coverage with a Marlins-Reds prediction and pick.
The Reds defeated the Marlins 5-3 on Wednesday to gain a 2-1 advantage in this four-game set. Cincinnati struck early when Kyle Farmer clipped a two-run double to shallow left field in the first inning, giving the Reds a 2-0 lead. Then, Donovan Solano hit an RBI single to center field making it 3-0 Reds. Matt Reynolds capped off a four-run first inning with an RBI single to center. The Reds won 5-3 despite allowing solo home runs to Nick Fortes and JJ Bieday. Additionally, Luis Castillo once again pitched well, tossing seven innings while allowing three runs and striking out eight.
The Marlins do not have an announced starting pitcher yet. Meanwhile, the Reds will roll with Graham Ashcraft on the hill. Ashcraft is 4-2 with a 4.70 ERA. Recently, he went 4 2/3 innings while allowing four earned runs on seven hits. Ashcraft is 0-0 with a 5.17 ERA in three starts in July. However, he has been better at home, as he is 3-1 with a 3.34 ERA in six starts at the Great American Ballpark. Neither team is faring well in the standings right now, as the Marlins are 46-52 and fourth in the NL East while the Reds are 38-59 and last in the NL Central.
Here are the Marlins-Reds MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Reds Odds
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-170)
Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+140)
Over: 9.5 (-104)
Under: 9.5 (-118)
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Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
The Marlins rank 21st in batting average, 25th in on-base percentage, 24th in runs, 20th in home runs, and 25th in slugging percentage. Likewise, Jesus Aguilar and Jesus Sanchez are the two main stars left with Jazz Chisholm out for six weeks with a back injury. Aguilar is batting .245 with 11 home runs, 39 RBIs, and 32 runs in 2022. However, he has struggled against the Reds, going 0 for 8 in this series. Sanchez is batting .204 with 11 home runs, 31 RBIs, and 35 runs. Likewise, he is 2 for 7 against the Reds with one RBI. Both players will look to pick up a lifeless offense that has amassed seven runs in three games. Subsequently, that is not going to get the job done.
The Marlins will cover the spread if they get a good outing out of whoever is starting. They cannot allow a big first inning like yesterday and cannot put their bullpen in an early hole. Ultimately, Miami will need to pitch well and score early. The Marlins have taken a hit since Chisholm's injury, and someone must step up to fill the void.
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
The Reds are not a great team by any stretch of the imagination. Cincinnati ranks 17th in batting average, 21st in on-base percentage, 18th in runs, 21st in home runs, and 24th in slugging percentage. Their offense is inconsistent, scoring 11 runs in one game, and barely scoring much of anything in other games. Now, they hope to replicate Monday's offense.
Kyle Farmer is batting .255 with six home runs, 49 RBIs, and 36 RBIs. Likewise, he is batting .273 (3 for 11) with three RBIs and three runs over three games against the Marlins. Farmer is batting .248 with five home runs, 28 RBIs, and 26 runs at the Great American Ballpark this year. Joey Votto is still around, batting .210 with eight home runs, 34 RBIs, and 26 runs. Conversely, it has been terrible for him in this series, as he is batting 1 for 10. Also, Votto is batting .197 with six home runs, 22 RBIs, and 14 runs in 37 games at the Great American Ballpark.
The Reds will cover the spread if they get a good outing out of Ashcraft. So far, he has been solid at home and looks to continue that trend today. Ashcraft could use some run support. Thus, Farmer, Votto, and the rest of the Reds' lineup must produce and avoid the inconsistent funk that has befallen them too many times this season. They would benefit from scoring early again, as they managed only one run after their big first inning.
Final Marlins-Reds Prediction & Pick
Neither team is coming in hot. Also, neither team is throwing out a trustworthy pitcher. The line is high, but both teams cracked it on Monday the last time these teams were in this situation. Sandy Alcantara was the ace on Tuesday for the Marlins while Castillo dominated yesterday. Ultimately, neither of these starting pitchers comes close to those two. Expect the runs to pour in.
Final Marlins-Reds Prediction & Pick: Over: 9.5 (-104)
