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The Cincinnati Reds take on the Boston Red Sox. Check out our MLB odds series for our Reds Red Sox prediction and pick.
Hunter Greene gets the assignment for the Reds, while Garrett Whitlock gets the call for the Red Sox.
Hunter Greene has a 5.89 ERA, but that hardly tells the full story of his first two months this season. Greene gave up 21 runs in his first five starts, encompassing 20 2/3 innings, but he has significantly improved since then. You will likely remember that Greene threw 7 1/3 innings of no-hit ball against the Pirates a few weeks ago. In his last four starts, covering 23 2/3 innings, he has given up only nine runs. His ERA after those first five very rough starts in 2022 was 8.71. Shaving nearly three runs off his ERA shows the progress he has made in recent weeks. This should affect your Reds Red Sox prediction.
Garrett Whitlock has a 3.49 ERA as a reliever and spot starter for Boston. He has made appearances ranging from one to six innings this season, with multiple outings of 2 1/3 innings, multiple three-inning stints, multiple four-inning appearances, and some starts which went five to six innings. In April, Whitlock's outings were more frequent but shorter. He pitched 16 2/3 innings and gave up only two runs in that first month of the season. In May, he began to make more starts and — naturally — fewer overall appearances. He pitched 22 innings and gave up 14 runs, at least two in each of his five appearances that month. Home runs allowed in May were three more than April (4-1), but the much bigger jump was in hits allowed: 24 in May compared to nine in April. This is something to think about when making a Reds Red Sox pick based on the MLB odds.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Reds-Red Sox MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Reds-Red Sox Odds
Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-111)
Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (-108)
Over: 8.5 (-122)
Under: 8.5 (+100)
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Why The Reds Could Cover the Spread
The Reds are playing really good baseball. They were easily the worst team in the majors in April, but in May, they had a winning record. Their win over the Red Sox on Tuesday gave them a 14-13 mark in May. That win in Boston was the Reds' first victory in Fenway Park since October 22, 1975, which was Game 7 of the 1975 World Series and arguably the single greatest moment in the history of the Reds franchise. This Reds team started 3-22 and is working its way up the standings. There is a lot of promising young talent on this team, very much including an array of fireballing starting pitchers. Hunter Greene's near-no-hitter against the Pirates a few weeks ago showed what he is capable of. He also pitched respectably against the potent Toronto Blue Jays. He has a lot of upside, and given that the Red Sox have scored a combined total of one run in their last two games, Greene could add to Boston's misery. This is something to consider when formulating a pick.
Why The Red Sox Could Cover the Spread
After getting embarrassed by the Orioles on Monday and shut down by the Reds in a 2-1 loss on Tuesday in which their only run scored came on an infield single with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, the Red Sox are going to be out for blood. They could not hit a thing in April, then roared to life the past three weeks, but in the past 48 hours, they have reverted to their impotent April identity. Are the Red Sox going to go into another prolonged hitting slump? The MLB odds would suggest otherwise.
Final Reds-Red Sox Prediction & Pick
This is a game to stay away from, given that the Red Sox surely lost a lot of money for anyone who bet on them to win a reasonable percentage of games in April. Are the Red Sox reverting to their abysmal April form? It's such a difficult question to answer, and we remind you that you don't have to bet on every game.
If you insist on making a play, however, the Red Sox would still be the choice, just not a confident one.
Final Reds-Red Sox Prediction & Pick: Red Sox -1.5
