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The NFL playoffs kick off with Wild Card Weekend! We’ll have some intriguing matchups and storylines, with Giants/Vikings and Cowboys/Buccaneers likely to be closer scoring games while the Bills and Bengals have a chance to run away with their contests. Keep reading for a breakdown of my best NFL picks for this weekend.
Be sure to also stay tuned to our NFL odds series for more on betting around the football playoffs!
All NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Picks: Dolphins-Bills
Dolphins: +13.5 (-105), ML: +610
Bills: -13.5 (-115), ML: -900
The Bills will be hosting the depleted Dolphins in what should be an easy victory for the home team. To me, the question isn’t so much “does Buffalo win this game” as it is “how much does Buffalo win by?” The Bills are going to obliterate the weakened team across from them led by a third-string quarterback. Miami barely managed to score nine points last week against the Jets, and that game was painful to watch. They aren’t going to be able to move the ball with any sort of consistency against Buffalo, and the Bills aren’t going to be stopped when they have the ball.
If Tua was playing, I’d still take Buffalo with a spread of around 6.5-7.5 points, but with their third-stringer, this spread is right where it should be.
The problem with these large spreads comes down to one question: Does Buffalo even care about winning by that many points? In this case, I think they will, although not because they care about the betting implications.
In the regular season, a team that knows they outmatch their opponent by this much might be comfortable coasting after two touchdowns. This is the playoffs, however, and Buffalo wants to win a ring for Damar Hamlin. They won’t be taking any chances. They might start coasting eventually, but not until they are up by at least four touchdowns, maybe even five. If Miami manages to get in anywhere near a three-possession game, I think Buffalo will step on the gas again and keep the game way out of reach. I’ll back the Bills and the large spread for this game.
NFL Pick: Bills -13.5 (-115)
NFL Picks: Giants-Vikings
Giants: +3 (-114), ML: +132
Vikings: -3 (-106), ML: -158
Minnesota’s defense is not very good, and Kirk Cousins gets hit as much as any other quarterback in the league, if not more. Combine that with a dominant Giants pass rush led by Leonard Williams and Kayvon Thibodeaux arhat will almost certainly get to Cousins multiple times this week, and I think the Giants have a good chance of pulling off the upset.
Kirk Cousins is still a better QB than Daniel Jones, but I think we’ll see Jones finding more ways to contribute by running the ball for positive yards, while Cousins is running for his life in the backfield.
The Vikings have a stronger receiver room, but I think that’s the only clear area of advantage for Minnesota. Both teams are about evenly matched, both teams are well coached, and I’ll take Brian Daboll and the New York Football Giants for this game. Give me the plus money!
NFL Pick: Giants moneyline (+132)
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NFL Picks: Ravens-Bengals
Ravens: +8.5 (-110), ML: +360
Bengals: -8.5 (-110), ML: -460
The Bengals are a much better team, to begin with. Lamar Jackson won’t be suiting up for this one, and the Bengals are still angry about the whole coin-toss situation. Joe Burrow and company are playing at home and will make sure to leave no doubt about who the better team is.
NFL Pick: Bengals -8.5 (-110)
NFL Picks: Cowboys-Buccaneers
Cowboys: -2.5 (-115), ML: -142
Buccaneers: +2.5 (-105), ML: +120
The Buccaneers haven’t had a particularly great season this year, but I also see some weaknesses with this Dallas team. I don’t think the Cowboys are as good as their 12-5 record suggests, and they fell flat on their face against backups with the potential one seed on the line.
Lining up across from them is Tom Brady, one of the all-time greats. The Bucs were up and down throughout the year, but this is the playoffs, and historically this is where Brady shines the brightest.
Brady and the Bucs are going to be playing at home, and against a good but flawed Dallas team, I’m going to go with Brady and the plus money for this one.
NFL Pick: Buccaneers moneyline (+120)
