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On Sunday, we’ll kick off the new year with an exciting slate of football games. We’ll be focusing on player NFL prop picks in this article, which can be an exciting way to make money while betting on outcomes for specific players. We have several good options this week, including a touchdown scorer prop bet at +400 odds.
Be sure to keep up with our NFL odds series for more on betting around the National Football League.
All NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Prop Picks: Broncos-Chiefs
JuJu Smith-Schuster (Alt) 50+ receiving yards (-166)
Patrick Mahomes (Alt) 275+ passing yards (-146)
JuJu Smith-Schuster has established himself as a go-to safety outlet for quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who will likely find himself looking for Smith-Schuster early and often against a Broncos pass defense that has seen success slowing down opposing passing games this season. Part of Kansas City’s strategy will likely be to take what is given to them early in the game, which will likely be a lot of passes to JuJu on shorter, safer routes. If JuJu catches five passes around five yards downfield and then just turns and dives forward for a couple of extra yards, that will put him around the 30-40 yard mark. At that point, all he needs to do is break one tackle for an extra 10-15 yards, catch a few more short passes or one intermediate pass to put him across the 50-yard mark, and cash this prop bet.
Patrick Mahomes is one of the best QBs in the game, and it almost doesn’t matter what caliber of defense he is facing. Between JuJu, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and star tight end Travis Kelce, Mahomes has no shortage of weapons to spread the ball around to. If the Broncos play tight coverage on the outside receivers and shut down the deep ball early, KC will happily take the short passes that are given to them, moving down the field efficiently and forcing the Denver defense to react. This will then open up deep shots for the boundary receivers (and likely Kelce will get involved in the deep game, too), which is where the Chiefs can really do damage.
NFL Prop Picks: Colts-Giants
Saquon Barkley anytime touchdown scorer (-140)
Saquon Barkley will likely be the best player on the field for either team’s offense this week, and as such he will see no shortage of touches. Expect the Giants to feed Barkley early and often, particularly so in the RedZone. Barkley is a threat to break off a long run and take it to the house from anywhere on the field, but he is just as capable of mixing it up and muscling his way into the endzone in short-yardage RedZone situations. Either way, expect Saquon to get plenty of opportunities and to punch in at least one touchdown on Sunday.
NFL Prop Picks: Steelers-Ravens
Najee Harris anytime touchdown scorer (+155)
George Pickens anytime touchdown scorer (+410)
Kenny Pickett over 191.5 passing yards (-114)
Najee Harris is a tough, physical running back who will see plenty of usage in the RedZone, where Kenny Pickett is still growing and has had some challenges in the past when the field shrinks and the defense tightens. The Steelers have had little issue moving the ball between the 20s this season, it is in the RedZone where they seem to often get bogged down.
When the Steelers are able to get into the RedZone, they will be smart to give Harris more opportunities. As a physical, downhill runner Harris can take advantage of these opportunities to convert Carrie’s into touchdowns by fighting through defenders. If the Steelers are to win this week, look for Harris to score at least one touchdown. I’d expect it to be from 10 yards out or closer.
George Pickens is much more of a long shot, but it’s one I can see happening so I’ll sprinkle a quarter of a unit on it due to the significant plus odds. Pickens is developing a strong rapport with his fellow rookie Pickett, and this QB-WR duo has linked up for a few touchdowns in their limited time together this season (Pickett didn’t start the first four games, and then missed time with a concussion), and they also converted a 2-point attempt where Pickett completed a nice off-platform throw to Pickens in the corner of the endzone. These two have been connecting more as of late, and Pickens is slowly becoming a go-to target. Also, his status as an elite jump-ball receiver makes him a great target in the RedZone. I think fair odds for this would be closer to +250, so I’ll happily take this bet at +410.
Kenny Pickett has been acclimating himself well as of late, seemingly getting better in every game that he plays. The Ravens also allow nearly 240 yards through the air, which makes this a good matchup for Pickett and company. Pickett played well in the two-minute drill last week, and I’m looking for that to carry over and for Kenny to put up yardage numbers in at least the low 200s this week against his AFC North rival.
