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This week, we have three great choices for betting the over. Let's continue our NFL odds series with a prediction on the best over/under bets for Week 9 of the NFL.
Two of these matchups feature at least one elite offense capable of single-handedly getting close to the total by themselves, if not cashing it outright. The third matchup features an offense that has been inconsistent at best this season going up against a defense that represents an opportunity for an all-time great quarterback to get his team back on track.
All NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Week 9 Odds
Bills-Jets: Over 45.5 (-115)
The Jets are middle of the pack in defense this year, allowing just a shade under 20 points per game. Josh Allen and company, meanwhile, are second in scoring offense, recording an average of 29 ppg. This sets the table for the Bills to have somewhat of a field day on Sunday. Allen could easily throw for 300+ yards and 3+ touchdowns, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Bills mix another touchdown or two in there somewhere as well. Even though they are playing a decent defense, Buffalo, along with Kansas City, is one of the few teams in the league that is a threat to go over the game total by themselves on any given day if things are firing on all cylinders.
The Jets have a young and talented offense, but they are still growing and will be going up against the best-scoring defense in football. This should result in some short fields for Allen, making Buffalo’s offense even more lethal, and it wouldn’t be a total surprise if the Bills' defense actually puts some points on the board themselves this weekend, taking advantage of a mistake by Zach Wilson to come away with a pick-six.
This game could get out of control early. The Bills can easily score on their first possession, get a stop, and score again. They could potentially be up 14-0, even 21-0, by the end of the first quarter. The Jets are a solidly average offense. With Buffalo getting off to a quick start and maintaining a large lead, New York will likely be able to score at least two or three times, either against a prevent defense, against Buffalo’s second team, or a combination of a second team playing prevent defense that could make even the most inept offense look slightly below average.
My prediction is a final score of Buffalo 38, New York 17. Any score along those lines would easily cash this bet.
Packers-Lions: Under 49.5 (-110)
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The Lions are last in the NFL in terms of scoring defense this year, allowing a whopping 32.1 points per game. The Packers have fallen short of their usual offensive standards, recording an average of just over 18 ppg so far this year. Playing the worst defense in the league could be just the cure Rodgers needs. He could easily throw for 300+ yards and 4+ touchdowns, and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Packers score at least once on the ground as well, if not twice. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Green Bay at least come close to covering this total themselves. Likely, they’ll finish the game somewhere in the low 30s.
Detroit also, contrary to their reputation in recent years, isn’t inept on offense. They actually have a surprisingly decent offense this season, averaging 24.7 ppg. If Detroit can pull their weight, even just a little bit, this should be an easy cash-in as Green Bay’s offense wakes up and shows out.
My prediction is a final score of Green Bay 34, Detroit 21. Any score along those lines would cash this bet.
Chiefs-Titans: Over 45.5 (-110)
The Chiefs will score at least 30 points while walking away with the win, while Derrick Henry can score two touchdowns on the ground and the Titans can add another one through the air. This is especially likely late in the game if Kansas City has enough of a lead where they elect to go into a prevent defense or even a bit of a semi-prevent defense.
Tennessee has an elite defense, ranking just inside the top ten in terms of opponent's points per game, but this is Patrick Mahomes we’re talking about here. Mahomes is at, or close to, the top of his powers right now, and the Chiefs lead the league in points per game.
Yes, there is a potential storyline of this game where the Titans' defense slows down this high-powered Chiefs offense, Derrick Henry totes the rock 30+ times, and the Titans are able to control time of possession, keeping Mahomes on the sideline and making it an ugly, physical, low-scoring game. I wouldn’t be shocked if that happens. However, my modeling puts the likelihood of the game going over 45 at just over 65%, which makes this a great value bet at -110.
