UFC 324: Justin Gaethje vs. Paddy Pimblett continues on the prelims with a bout between Nikita Krylov and Modestas Bukauskas in the light heavyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Krylov-Bukauskas prediction and pick.
Nikita Krylov (30-11) enters UFC 324 on a two-fight skid, having been knocked out in the first round by Dominick Reyes in April 2025 and Bogdan Guskov that July, both via heavy counters and follow-up punches. The veteran finisher now looks to steady a suddenly shaky run as he comes into his fight this weekend against Modestas Bukauskas.
Modestas Bukauskas (19-6) rides a four-fight UFC winning streak, most recently starching Paul Craig with a buzzer-beater elbow at the end of round one in September 2025. Earlier in 2025, he edged Ion Cutelaba by split decision and stopped Raffael Cerqueira, as he comes into his fight this weekend against Nikita Krylov.
Here are the UFC 324 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 324 odds: Nikita Krylov-Modestas Bukauskas odds
Nikita Krylov: +124
Modestas Bukauskas: -148
Over 1.5 rounds: +100
Under 1.5 rounds: -130
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Why Nikita Krylov will win
- Last Fight: (L) Bogdan Guskov – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 28 (12 KO/TKO/16 SUB)
Nikita Krylov can beat Modestas Bukauskas at UFC 324 by leaning on his deeper finishing arsenal and grappling edge. With 16 submission wins and a far higher rate of attempts, Krylov’s ability to chain takedowns into subs gives him a clear path if he forces clinches and mat exchanges.
On the feet, Krylov’s higher striking output and accuracy can tax a Bukauskas style that tends to be lower volume and willing to give ground. If Bukauskas overcommits on blitz entries, Krylov’s counter shots and level changes can create chaotic scrambles, where the more experienced finisher capitalizes for a club-and-sub or ground-and-pound stoppage.
Why Modestas Bukauskas will win
- Last Fight: (W) Paul Craig – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 14 (11 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Modestas Bukauskas can beat Nikita Krylov at UFC 324 by using his cleaner distance striking and superior defensive awareness. Bukauskas’ switch-stance movement, long jab, and intercepting knees are built to punish Krylov’s straight-line pressure and tendency to overcommit entering the pocket.
With a four-fight UFC winning streak and improved takedown defense, Bukauskas is better equipped now to keep this standing and force Krylov into an uncomfortable kickboxing match. If he maintains his range, makes Krylov miss on big entries, and consistently counters with straight shots and kicks, the Lithuanian can gradually chip away at Krylov’s durability and either force a late stoppage or bank rounds en route to a decision.
Final Nikita Krylov-Modestas Bukauskas prediction & pick
This is a volatile light heavyweight clash where Krylov’s broader finishing arsenal and experience against elite names narrowly tilt the matchup in his favor. Krylov has consistently mixed wrestling, grappling, and awkward pressure striking in a way Bukauskas has yet to fully solve at this level.
Early, Bukauskas’ sharper distance striking and recent knockout form make him live to hurt Krylov, especially given Krylov’s recent first-round KO losses. However, if Krylov survives that initial storm, his ability to force clinches, mat exchanges, and chaotic scrambles should start to tell.
Krylov’s submission game and proven cardio in three-round wars give him multiple ways to win once the pace grinds and the fight becomes less clean and technical. Against a striker who still prefers operating at range and rhythm, Krylov’s pressure, volume, and grappling threats can disrupt timing and drain Bukauskas’ effectiveness.
The pick is Krylov to weather some rough moments, turn this into an ugly, attritional fight down the stretch, and either find a late club-and-sub or grind out a decision on the strength of control and damage.
Final Nikita Krylov-Modestas Bukauskas Prediction & Pick: Nikita Krylov (+124), Over 1.5 Rounds (+100)
