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On Tuesday, the Thunder host the Nuggets in Game 5, tied at 2-2! This series is one of the best remaining in the playoffs. The Thunder took back the momentum going home. It's time to continue our NBA Playoffs odds series with a Nuggets-Thunder prediction and pick.
The Nuggets shocked the Thunder in Game 1 and held on in Game 3 to help tie the series at 2-2. Nikola Jokic has been a monster for the Nuggets because the Thunder doesn't have someone to guard him one-on-one. Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, and Michael Porter Jr. are the keys for the Nuggets, setting the tone and getting another win on the road.
The Thunder blew out the Nuggets in Game 2 and then shut down Denver in Game 4. Jalen Williams had a monster Game 3, but no one else had an impressive performance. Game 4 was all about defense, and the Thunder completely shut down the Nuggets. The momentum has shifted back to Oklahoma City, and they need a massive game at home from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Chet Holmgren.
Here are the Nuggets-Thunder NBA Playoffs odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Playoffs Odds: Nuggets-Thunder Game 5 Odds
Denver Nuggets: +10.5 (-114)
Moneyline: +380
Oklahoma City Thunder: -10.5 (-106)
Moneyline: -490
Over: 221.(-105)
Under: 221 (-115)
How To Watch Nuggets vs. Thunder NBA Playoffs 2025
Time: 9:30 pm ET/6:30 pm PT
TV: TNT/TruTV/Max
*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why the Nuggets Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Nuggets' offense was great this season and has translated well into the postseason. They are sixth in scoring at 107.4 points per game, fifth in field goal percentage at 45.2%, and fifth in three-point percentage at 36.7%.
Six Nuggets have scored over double digits in the postseason. Nikola Jokic leads the team in points per game and assists with 24.9 points and 8.4 assists per game, and is also in the top five in the postseason. Jamal Murray is second in scoring, averaging 21.7 points per game. Aaron Gordon rounds out the top three, averaging 18.3 points.
The Nuggets had one of the best offenses in the NBA all season, but they have faced more formidable defenses in the postseason with the Clippers and now the Thunder. Expect a bounce-back performance from the offense after an awful performance in Game 4, where they had a 31.3% field goal percentage.
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Why the Thunder Will Cover the Spread/Win
The Nuggets' defense has been inconsistent and has struggled in the postseason. They are 12th in points allowed, at 111.1 points per game, 11th in field goal defense, 46.4%, and seventh in three-point defense, 34.7%, from behind the arc.
Jokic leads in rebounds at 12.7 per game and is the current leader in the postseason after Giannis Antetokounmpo was eliminated. Jokic is also the best shot blocker on the team, averaging one block per game. Three players are averaging at least one steal for their on-ball defense, and Jokic also dominates there, averaging 2.2 steals per game.
Jokic does everything for the Nuggets and is the biggest key on defense, just as much as on offense, and that hasn't changed in the postseason. They need more from this defense to help him, especially with Russell Westbrook, Peyton Watson, and Christian Braun on the perimeter.
The Thunder's offense has been great during the postseason. They are third in scoring at 118 points per game, 10th in field goal percentage at 44.3%, and 14th in three-point percentage at 33.9%.
Four Thunder players average over double digits in scoring, with Gilgeous-Alexander being the biggest star and the engine that drives the entire unit. As the MVP favorite, he averages 27.6 points per game and contributes 6.6 assists. Jalen Williams is second in scoring at 21 points per game, and then Holmgren rounds out the top three with 15.9 points.
The Thunder have playmakers on offense, and they should be able to score on a Nuggets defense that has struggled recently. Gilgeous-Alexander is a matchup nightmare for the Nuggets, and the Thunder have a matchup advantage everywhere except for Holmgren down low, who needs to hold his own with Hartenstein. This defense is elite and is the key to them winning.
The Thunder's defense has been outstanding this year, but they have not been as good in the postseason. They are seventh in scoring defense at 104.8 points per game, first in field goal defense at 41.4%, and fifth in three-point defense at 32.4%.
The Thunder's frontcourt has been a tremendous strength, but Jokic is a different beast. Holmgren leads the team in rebounds and blocks with 9.6 and 2.5 per game, respectively. Oklahoma City's on-ball defense has also been excellent, with six different defenders averaging at least one steal, and Alex Caruso is the leader, averaging 1.9 per game.
This defense has proven that it can shut down any offense in the NBA. Jokic is the biggest challenge because Holmgren and Hartenstein need help guarding him one-on-one. However, their perimeter defense is elite, which can cancel that out.
Final Nuggets-Thunder Prediction & Pick
The Thunder found their footing in an ugly game in Denver, and I think they translate that to a blowout win at home in Game 5. The Thunder win, cover at home, and take a 3-2 lead in the series.
Final Nuggets-Thunder Prediction & Pick: Thunder -10.5 (-106)
