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The Baltimore Orioles will continue their three-game series with the Minnesota Twins on Saturday at Target Field. These are two teams heading in opposite directions as we share our MLB odds series and make an Orioles-Twins prediction and pick.
Orioles-Twins Projected Starters
Albert Suarez vs. Zebby Matthews
Albert Suarez (8-7) with a 3.74 ERA …
Last Start: Suarez went five innings in his last outing while allowing four earned runs, five hits, striking out six, and walking one in a loss to the Detroit Tigers.
2024 Road Splits: Suarez is 5-3 with a 3.53 ERA over 16 starts on the road.
Zebby Matthews (1-3) with a 5.71 ERA
Last Start: Matthews went 4 2/3 innings while allowing one earned run, two hits, striking out six, and walking two in a no-decision against the Boston Red Sox.
2024 Home Splits: Matthews is 1-1 with an 8.22 ERA over four starts at home.
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Orioles-Twins Odds
Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+155)
Moneyline: -104
Minnesota Twins: +1.5 (-188)
Moneyline: -112
Over: 9 (-110)
Under: 9 (-110)
How to Watch Orioles vs. Twins
Time: 7:15 PM ET/4:15 PM PT
TV: FOX
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Orioles Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Orioles will start the postseason as a wildcard team. Despite their best efforts, they could not keep pace with the New York Yankees. Therefore, the O's will start the playoffs in a battle against the Kansas City Royals or Detroit Tigers. They need their offense to continue rising to the challenge.
Gunnar Henderson is excellent and continues to break team records. Overall, he is the plug that revs the engine in Baltimore, as he came into the weekend leading the O's in hits. Henderson entered the weekend batting .284 with 37 home runs, 91 RBIs, and 118 runs. Therefore, expect him to be a major part of this offense in this game. Adley Rutchman continues to be awesome at the plate. Significantly, he came into the weekend hitting .250 with 19 home runs, 77 RBIs, and 66 runs. Anthony Santander is a powerhouse. Amazingly, he came into the weekend leading the team with 44 home runs. Ryan O'Hearn has been incredible in his chances while filling in for Ryan Mountcastle at times.
Suarez has two quality starts in five outings. Yet, he has not displayed any consistency. When he exits the game, he will turn the ball over to a bullpen that is just 23rd in team ERA. Seranthony Dominguez is the closer for now, as the O's attempt to protect leads.
The Orioles will cover the spread if they can batter the baseball and create an overwhelming lead early. Then, they need Suarez to pitch well and for the bullpen to hold the fort.
Why The Twins Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Twins were firmly in a playoff spot not even two weeks ago. Unfortunately, the wheels have fallen off. Minnesota came into the weekend on the heels of an ugly 9-15 stretch in September that has derailed their season. Of course, it did not help that their divisional rivals, the Tigers, have gotten absolutely hot, winning five in a row coming into the weekend. For the Twins to cover the spread, they need to start with their offense.
The offense is pitiful. Thus, it was a terrible sign when the leading hitter, Willi Castro, came into the weekend batting .248 with 12 home runs, 60 RBIs, and 89 runs. Castro has shouldered the weight of this offense. Of course, injuries have been a significant reason for this. Carlos Santana is the only power threat in the lineup. Yet, he only came into the weekend with 22 home runs. Power has been in limited supply, and offense has been almost nonexistent for this team, especially after dropping two of three to the lowly Miami Marlins at home.
Matthews still hasn't had a quality start, so he hasn't shown he can be a decent starting pitcher. Therefore, it's hard to trust him. When Matthews exits, he will turn it over to a bullpen that is 18th in baseball in team ERA. Jhoan Duran has been the closer. However, there have not been many save chances lately.
The Twins will cover the spread if the offense can get the jump on Suarez. Then, they need to find any good pitching from Matthews. Minnesota also needs a good performance from the bullpen.
Final Orioles-Twins Prediction & Pick
The Orioles came into the weekend with a run-line record of 85-74, while the Twins were 72-87. Additionally, the Orioles 46-32 against the run line on the road, while the Twins were just 33-45 against the run line at home. The Twins look absolutely dead right now. If they are not eliminated on Friday, they likely will be on Saturday. Conversely, the Orioles are attempting to build momentum for the postseason. Expect that to help them roll to victory. Orioles cover the run line.
Final Orioles-Twins Prediction & Pick: Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+155)
