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The Pittsburgh Pirates are looking to avoid being swept on the road as they take on the Arizona Diamondbacks. This game will continue our MLB odds series with a Pirates-Diamondbacks prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Pittsburgh has not been able to get anything going in the five games they have played against the Diamondbacks this season. The Pirates are batting just .216 against Arizona and have an OPS under .600. Jack Suwinski leads the way with five hits, but that is in 18 at-bats. Bryan Reynolds and Carlos Santana are a combined 5-38 in the five games against Arizona. On the mound, the Pirates have a 4.47 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Three of the five starts have been quality for Pittsburgh with two of those three coming from Mitch Keller.
The Diamondbacks are 4-1 against the Pirates this season. They are batting just .230 in the five games though. Ketel Marte, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Corbin Carroll are all batting over .300 against Pittsburgh, but they are the only ones. However, Arizona has stolen 11 bases in the five games, so they are putting the pressure on. Arizona has a 3.80 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 8.2 K/9 against the Pirates this season. Just one of their five starts have been quality and that was Zac Gallen.
The Pirates will be using an opener in this game while the Diamondbacks will be starting Zach Davies.
Here are the Pirates-Diamondbacks MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Pirates-Diamondbacks Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-154)
Arizona Diamondbacks: -1.5 (+128)
Over: 9.5 (-105)
Under: 9.5 (-115)
How To Watch Pirates vs. Diamondbacks
TV: AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh, Bally Sports Arizona
Stream: MLB TV subscription, ESPN+
Time: 4:10 PM ET/1:10 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Pirates Could Cover The Spread
Pittsburgh is facing a struggling pitcher in this game. Davies has a 6.52 ERA on the year with a 1.57 WHIP and .281 opponent batting average. The Pirates have a chance to hit the ball around and put up some big numbers in this game. Offensively, the Pirates are batting just .239, but against Davies, they should be able to raise this average. Jack Suwinski leads the Pirates in home runs and 18 of his 19 home runs have come off of right-handed pitching. In fact, 55 of the Pirates 80 home runs have come off of righties this season. The Power is there against right-handers, so Pittsburgh should be able to smack the ball around in this game.
The Diamondbacks have lost each of the last five games Davies has pitched in. On the season, Arizona is just 3-6 in games Davies pitches. The Pirates need to win this game at the plate. If they can hit the ball and get Davies out early, they will cover the spread. Pittsburgh just needs to find some gaps and play their game.
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover The Spread
Even though Davies has struggled, the Diamondbacks can still win this game. For one, Arizona has the sixth best bullpen ERA in the NL. Davies might struggle, but with the All-Star break next week, the bullpen should be fully stocked and ready to go. I would not be surprised to see Davies have a short leash and go less than five innings in this game. As long as the Diamondbacks bullpen can shut down the pirates, as they have all season, Arizona will win this game and cover the spread.
Speaking of bullpens, the Pirates are going to be using theirs a lot in this game as they have chose to go with a staff day. This benefits the Diamondbacks, though. Pittsburgh is bottom-10 in bullpen ERA despite having one of the better closers in the game. If Arizona can get a big enough lead and not have to face David Bednar and Colin Holderman late in the game with a one run lead, or losing, they should be able to cover the spread. The Diamondbacks definitely need to give some run support in this game and they have the matchups to do it.
Final Pirates-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
I would not be surpised to see a high scoring game in this one. With Davies on the mound for Arizona and the Pirates staffing the game, there should be no shortage of runs. However, when it comes to which team can outlast the other in a high scoring game, my gut leans towards Arizona. The Diamondbacks have good hitters in their offense and a better bullpen than the Pirates. I expect Arizona to win this game and cover the spread while doing so.
Final Pirates-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Diamondbacks -1.5 (+128), Over 9.5 (-105)
