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As two veterans coming off controversial losses, Randy Brown (19-6) and Nicolas Dalby (23-5-1, 2 NC) look to get back on track against each other at UFC Kansas City. It's time to continue our UFC odds series with a Randy Brown-Nicolas Dalby prediction and pick.
Brown, 34, saw his three-fight win streak come to a halt at UFC 310 with a loss to the surging Bryan Battle. However, despite dropping the split decision against an overweight fighter, many fans felt that Brown deserved to get the judges' nod by the end of the bout. Still 13-6 overall in the UFC, Brown has not fallen to a fighter coming off a loss since current champion Belal Muhammad beat him in 2017.
Dalby, 40, is also coming off a controversial split decision defeat. His loss came against 23-1-1 phenom Rinat Fakhretdinov at UFC Saudi Arabia 2024, as many fans felt his late pressure should have been enough to get the victory. Instead, Dalby's four-fight win streak fell at the hands of Fakhretdinov, making his last win a hellacious comeback TKO over Gabriel Bonfim in November 2023.
Here are the UFC Kansas City Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Kansas City Odds: Randy Brown-Nicolas Dalby Odds
Randy Brown: -265
Nicolas Dalby: +215
Over 2.5 rounds: -260
Under 2.5 rounds: +195
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Why Randy Brown Will Win
As one of the largest welterweights on the roster, Brown will have the size advantage once again. He will be five inches taller than Dalby with a four-inch reach advantage. Not many lanky fighters manage distance as well as Brown does, as his athleticism, footwork, and speed are fairly unique for a fighter with his frame.
Brown will have to deal with the pesky pressure and cardio of Dalby, who is known for his unique breathing technique that allows him to defy the laws of human fatigue. But despite his size, Brown has not typically been one to fade. Instead, he actually averages more significant strikes per minute than Dalby does and has only been out-landed four times in his 18 UFC fights. Two of the fighters who did so — Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena — are facing off for the belt next week.
When Brown traditionally loses, he gets caught by a big shot that puts him out. He is not necessarily “chinny,” but he does not take damage well, and his recovery is less than optimal. Luckily, he faces an opponent in Dalby who is not known for his power and does not have the best range-closing ability to get past his reach. Dalby has just one knockout victory in his 13 UFC fights, and it was purely due to Bonfim gassing out and melting under pressure.
Why Nicolas Dalby Will Win
Dalby might physically be 40, but he fights in better condition than many 20-year-olds do. After flaming out in his first UFC run, Dalby somehow hit a second gear late in his career and has found his niche as a cardio-based striker with some of the highest activity in the division.
Dalby does not have the boxing to threaten Brown in close range, but he will do his best to be in the taller fighter's face for all 15 minutes. Brown has knockout power, but Dalby has never been finished in his 15-year-long professional career. Though he was knocked down three times in his initial UFC run, Dalby has not even been dropped since Jesse Ronson caught him in 2020. That result was later overturned when Ronson tested positive for PEDs after the fight.
With seemingly endless cardio and an above-average chin, Dalby is one of the most persistent 170-pound fighters in the UFC. Opponents have recently dealt with his relentless pressure by wrestling and holding him against the fence, which is not Brown's style. Dalby's biggest weakness as a bottom-position grappler and clinch fighter does not figure to be tested by Brown, who likes to use his length on the outside.
Final Randy Brown-Nicolas Dalby Prediction & Pick
Skill for skill, Brown is the better fighter with more tools in his bag. He will just have to deal with the grueling pace and pressure of Dalby, who has a knack for quickly wearing his opponents down. Coming off a fight in which Brown faded late against Bryan Battle, his cardio is sure to be tested by Dalby.
Yet, aside from the Battle fight, Brown has not been a fighter known to fade late in fights. He is as much of a volume striker as Dalby is, with more speed, athleticism and a significantly longer reach. His fight can easily be chalked up to Battle weighing in a whopping four pounds over the limit, and using that advantage the entire fight by holding Brown against the fence. Dalby does like to mix in his wrestling, but completes takedowns at just a 27-percent clip.
Whether in striking or grappling, Dalby will struggle with the size of Brown, who uses his length better than most. In similar matchups against volume strikers, Brown tends to get ahead with his slicker kickboxing and pick his opponents apart at range. Brown is a dangerous finisher, but Dalby has never been finished in his career. Expect Brown to get his hand raised at the end of a fun, high-paced 15-minute dogfight.
Final Randy Brown-Nicolas Dalby Prediction & Pick: Randy Brown by Decision (+100)
