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The time has come for the UFC 318 Main Event as we'll see a battle in the Lightweight (155) Division for the BMF belt as rivals step into the cage. BMF champ and UFC legend Max Holloway will take on fellow legend and former champion Dustin Poirier in his final UFC fight. Check the UFC odds for our Holloway-Poirier 3 prediction and pick.
Max Holloway (26-8) is currently 22-8 under the UFC banner since 2012. He contended for yet another Featherweight Championship in his last bout, but came up short against the unstoppable Ilia Topuria in the third round. Still holding his BMF belt after a win against Justin Gaethje, Holloway will send Poirier off into the sunset with one last fight. He stands 5-foot-11 with a 69-inch reach.
Dustin Poirier (30-9) has gone 22-8-0-1 in 14 years of fighting with the UFC. In contending for the Lightweight Championship his last time out against Islam Makhachev, Poirier managed to take the fight into the fifth round and give the champ a strong challenge. Now, he'll look for one last belt before calling it a satisfying career. Poirier stands 5-foot-9 with a 72-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 318 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 318 Odds: Max Holloway vs. Dustin Poirier 3 Odds
Max Holloway: -135
Dustin Poirier: +114
Over 4.5 rounds: -160
Under 4.5 rounds: +124
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Why Max Holloway Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Ilia Topuria – TKO (punches, R3)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 12 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Max Holloway came up short against Ilia Topuria his last time out, but it's really nothing to scoff at considering the destructive path Topuria is currently on. Holloway remains as one of the most talented strikers on the roster, evident of his recent wins over Yair Rodriguez and Justin Gaethje. Still, he's winless against Poirier in two bouts and will be relishing the role of spoiler during this retirement fight.
Max Holloway, while less powerful than Poirier, is far more active with his striking output with 7.16 strikes landed per minute to Poirier's 5.3. Holloway also boasts an impressive 59% career striking defense and his game has only evolved since the last time these two faced off. His cardio and motor have always been one of his biggest strengths, so expect Holloway to be all gas and no brakes throughout this fight.
While it may be in hostile territory, Max Holloway really rises to the occasion during these kinds of bouts and his chin has been nearly unbreakable throughout his whole career. He won't have to defend much of the wrestling as these two are intent on giving the fans a show on the feet.
Why Dustin Poirier Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Islam Makhachev – SUB (D'arce choke, R5)
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 16 KO/TKO, 7 SUB
After coming up short against Islam Makhachev in his most recent title challenge, there's not much left for Poirier to conquer in the UFC besides this remaining BMF title belt. He'll have some confidence knowing it comes against an opponent he's beaten twice in the past, but Poirier will still have to work around all the emotions that will come in fighting his retirement fight in his home state of Louisiana.
Still, Poirier looked his sharpest in his win against Benoit Saint-Denis, connecting perfectly with a right hook and ending the fight. His last six consecutive fights have all ended inside the distance, so it'll be interesting to see if he goes for a finish or decides to pace himself a bit more against a tough guy to put out like Holloway.
Given this being his final fight, I expect a more methodical approach from Dustin Poirier as he won't lend himself to a chaotic scrap. Controlled aggression will be the name of the game in not allowing Max Holloway enough room to breathe and open up his combinations.
Final Max Holloway-Dustin Poirier Prediction & Pick
This fight has all the makings of another classic between these two and it'll be a momentous occasion seeing Dustin Poirier fight his last bout in front of a hometown crowd. Max Holloway is determined to end this trilogy with a win and retain his BMF belt, but he's more than willing to give Dustin Poirier a great dance in his final fight.
Ultimately, I expect Max Holloway to be nearly flawless in his striking execution and while Dustin Poirier has the higher finishing upside, I expect this to be a five-round bout where both men land heavy shots and give-in to the back-and-forth brawl. However, with Max Holloway landing at the rate that he does, I expect that the be the slightest difference on the final scorecards.
Let's roll with Max Holloway to win this fight by decision in what should be a classic.
Final Max Holloway-Dustin Poirier Prediction & Pick: Max Holloway (-135)
