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Coming off the first loss of his career, Shara ‘Bullet' Magomedov (15-1) will look to rebound against Marc-Andre Barriault (17-9, one no-contest) at UFC Abu Dhabi on Saturday. It is time to continue our UFC odds series with a Shara Magomedov-Marc-Andre Barriault prediction and pick.
Magomedov, 31, started his UFC career with a 4-0 record in the Octagon before running into the similar style of Michael Page at UFC Saudi Arabia 2024. His undefeated record fell apart at the hands of ‘Venom,' who outpointed him in a karate-based striking match. However, before the loss, Magomedov picked up the best win of his career with a thrilling knockout of Armen Petrosyan.
Barriault, 35, is coming off arguably the biggest win of his career against Bruno Silva at UFC 315. The Canadian entered the bout on a three-fight skid but saved his job with a quick knockout just over one minute into the fight. The win bumped Barriault up to 6-5 with one no-contest in the UFC, making him the most experienced opponent of Magomedov's career in the Octagon.
Here are the UFC Abu Dhabi Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Abu Dhabi: Shara Magomedov-Marc-Andre Barriault odds
Shara Magomedov: -625
Marc-Andre Barriault: +455
Over 1.5 rounds: -188
Under 1.5 rounds: +145
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Why Shara Magomedov will win
Magomedov is no longer undefeated with his loss to Page, but there is a reason he is a massive favorite in this rebound attempt.
His point-fighting style, one that is clearly influenced by the likes of Stephen Thompson and Page, makes him one of the trickiest fighters to deal with. Page was simply a uniquely poor style matchup as one of the few fighters in the UFC who can match his footwork and speed.
Although Magomedov was visibly larger than Page, that factor does not typically play into his fights. The biggest advantage Magomedov has is his speed and range management.
Page was able to keep up with him in their fight, but Barriault's flat-footed approach is not as well-suited. Barriault desires a phone-booth fight that allows him to trade in the pocket, but Magomedov should be too quick for him to engage with in that area.
He is coming off a big win, but the 35-year-old Barriault has otherwise been quickly approaching the end of his career. Once known for his reliable chin that allowed him to engage in brawls, Barriault has been knocked out cold in his last two losses.
His most recent loss was his most concerning as he was rendered unconscious with one punch by Dustin Stoltzfus, a fighter not known for his knockout power.
Why Marc-Andre Barriault will win
Magomedov is flashy when he is given space, but he has shown very clear holes in his game. As quick and powerful as his kicks are, Magomedov does not have much punching power, often forcing him to fight into the later rounds more often than he desires. Although still dangerous deep into the fight, Magomedov's finishing prowess is much less potent after Round 1.
Barriault is not known for his grappling, but he will have the edge in that department against Magomedov. ‘Shara Bullet' has been outwrestled by fighters not known for their grappling before with Silva and Michal Oleksiejczuk taking him down three times each.
Barriault has not landed a takedown since 2020, but his film shows him as a much more competent grappler than Magomedov.
Against a kick-heavy striker like Magomedov, Barriault knows he needs to close the space. If he can force Magomedov into boxing range, Barriault has more power in his hands and is more comfortable in that type of fight. Barriault is not known as a high-action striker but surprisingly lands 6.02 significant strikes per minute, which is more than Magomedov.
Final Shara Magomedov-Marc-Andre Barriault prediction & pick
The UFC gave Magomedov back-to-back tests against high-level strikers in Petrosyan and Page, but they are now back to giving him a matchup he can style in. Barriault has the big knockout of Silva that looks good on a highlight reel but is just 1-3 in his last four fights and has been finished in four of his last five losses.
After failing his test against Page, Magomedov gets the matchup he loves against a plodding striker. Magomedov, who hardly lets his heels touch the canvas is too fast and tricky for midlevel power punchers like Barriault to figure out. The bigger cage fits his style perfectly as he uses every inch of the Octagon to his advantage to frustrate opponents.
The last time Barriault faced a Muay Thai striker similar to Magomedov, he was knocked out in 16 seconds by Chidi Njokuani. His waning durability is a significant reason why the matchup was made, but Magomedov has shown a tendency to point-fight in the UFC more than he did on the regional circuit.
His stark wrestling deficiency appears to make him less hesitant to take risks as both of his UFC knockouts have come in the second half of the fight. ‘Bullet' is being set up to get another finish, but his lack of aggression in the Octagon puts more value on the decision prop.
Final Shara Magomedov-Marc-Andre Barriault Prediction & Pick: Magomedov by decision (+200)
