UFC 318: Dustin Poirier versus Max Holloway continues on the main card with a fight between Paulo Costa and Roman Kopylov in the middleweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Costa-Kopylov prediction and pick.
Paulo Costa (14-4) heads into UFC 318 after dropping razor-close decisions to Sean Strickland and Robert Whittaker in his last two outings. Now the Brazilian powerhouse seeks to snap his skid and prove he’s still a top contender by turning back surging Russian Roman Kopylov this Saturday in New Orleans.
Roman Kopylov (15-3) returns to UFC 318 after a highlight-reel, last-second head-kick knockout over Chris Curtis in January, rebounding from a submission loss to Anthony Hernandez. Previously, he edged César Almeida via split decision. Now, the surging Russian striker looks to keep the momentum rolling by stunning Paulo Costa this Saturday in New Orleans.
Here are the UFC 318 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 318 odds: Paulo Costa-Roman Kopylov odds
Paulo Costa: +185
Roman Kopylov: -225
Over 2.5 rounds: -230
Under 2.5 rounds: +175
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Why Paulo Costa will win
- Last Fight: (L) Sean Strickland – DEC
- Last 5: 1-4
- Finishes: 12 (11 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Paulo Costa enters UFC 318 with the physical gifts and experience to overwhelm Roman Kopylov. Costa’s blend of size, athleticism, and explosive power has given elite middleweights trouble, allowing him to land 6.22 significant strikes per minute at a highly efficient 58% accuracy rate.
When Costa is focused and prepared, he pressures opponents from the opening bell, initiating brutal exchanges that sap their energy and force mistakes.
Costa’s evolution into a more strategic, multidimensional fighter is a key advantage in this matchup. He has recently incorporated effective leg kicks and better takedown setups, making his attacks less predictable and his output more manageable over three rounds.
With a 75% takedown success rate, Costa can now use wrestling threats to keep Kopylov guessing, disrupt his rhythm, and create opportunities for explosive ground-and-pound or clinch work.
Kopylov thrives at range, but Costa’s forward push and improved energy management can pressure the Russian, limit his kicking game, and turn the fight into close, damaging exchanges.
If Costa controls the center, mixes up his targets, and attacks the body early, he can wear Kopylov down and drag him into deeper waters, where his experience against world-class opposition could prove decisive.
Expect Costa’s sharpness and finishing instincts to produce powerful moments, allowing him to dictate the tempo and secure a hard-earned win.
Why Roman Kopylov will win
- Last Fight: (W) Chris Curtis – KO/TKO R3
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 12 (12 KO/TKO)
Roman Kopylov’s best route to victory over Paulo Costa at UFC 318 lies in his recent momentum and refined striking arsenal. The surging Russian comes in with back-to-back wins, showcasing not just his finishing ability but also improved defensive discipline and patience in the pocket.
He utilizes excellent footwork and range management, avoiding heavy return fire while wearing opponents down with accurate, high-percentage shots to the body and head.
Kopylov’s striking numbers are impressive, landing nearly five significant strikes per minute at a 50% clip, coupled with a superior 55% defensive rate. His body attacks, boasting an 85% success rate, can sap Costa’s cardio and slow down the explosive bursts Costa relies on.
With 87% takedown defense, Kopylov is well-equipped to stifle Costa’s wrestling attempts and force a stand-up battle, the area where Kopylov’s poise and rhythm grant him a clear edge.
Costa’s output has become less consistent, and he absorbs far more punishment per minute (6.56) than Kopylov (4.86). If Kopylov manages distance, conserves energy for the later rounds, and attacks the body, he can exploit defensive lapses and take over as the bout progresses.
In a measured, technical war, Kopylov’s accuracy, composure, and tactical improvements put him in position to outpoint or even finish Costa, earning a breakthrough win on the UFC 318 main card.
Final Paulo Costa-Roman Kopylov prediction & pick
Heading into UFC 318, Paulo Costa and Roman Kopylov square off in a high-stakes middleweight clash with stylistic intrigue. Costa brings an impressive blend of size, power, and aggression, having tested himself against the division’s elite.
His relentless pressure and high output often force opponents into defensive shells, creating openings for heavy shots and cage control. If Costa dictates the pace early and finds his rhythm in the pocket, his experience and explosiveness could prove overwhelming.
Kopylov, meanwhile, arrives riding momentum with back-to-back wins and a technical, body-focused game that has frustrated his recent opponents. His footwork and range management allow him to strike and evade, and with superior defensive awareness, Kopylov is built to capitalize on defensive lapses, particularly if Costa wanes in the later rounds.
While Costa’s experience at the top level is significant, Kopylov’s composure under fire and tactical improvements make this a closely contested battle. Expect fireworks, but the edge goes to Costa’s finishing instincts and ability to push a relentless pace, resulting in a late stoppage or unanimous-decision win for the Brazilian powerhouse.
Final Paulo Costa-Roman Kopylov Prediction & Pick: Paulo Costa (+185), Over 2.5 Rounds (-238)
