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The UFC Abu Dhabi Main Card is finally here on Saturday, and we're set for a betting prediction and pick for the opening bout, taking place in the Light Heavyweight (205) Division. No. 10-ranked Nikita Krylov of Russia will welcome Uzbekistan's No. 13 Bogdan Guskov in what should be a wild fight. Check the UFC odds for our Krylov-Guskov prediction and pick.
Nikita Krylov (30-10) has gone 11-8 inside the UFC since joining the roster in 2013. He recently improved his stock with three straight wins, two by finish coming against Alexander Gustafsson and Ryan Spann. He dropped his last bout against Dominick Reyes and hopes to return in a big way. Krylov stands 6-foot-3 with a 77.5-inch reach.
Bogdan Guskov (17-3) is 3-1 in his UFC career since entering in 2023. After looking flat during his debut fight, Guskov has notched three straight wins heading into this bout, highlighted by three finishes and two performance bonuses in the process. Watch for Guskov to be a live underdog. He stands 6-foot-3 with a 76-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Abu Dhabi Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Abu Dhabi odds: Nikita Krylov-Bogdan Guskov odds
Nikita Krylov: -198
Bogdan Guskov: +164
Over 1.5 rounds: +110
Under 1.5 rounds: -140
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Why Nikita Krylov will win
- Last Fight: (L) Dominick Reyes – KO (counter right, R1)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 12 KO/TKO, 16 SUB
After notching three straight wins and effectively derailing Ryan Spann's run at Light Heavyweight, Nikita Krylov faced the harsh reality of Dominick Reyes' right hand during his last fight.
It was just Krylov's second career knockout loss in 40 professional fights, so it was certainly a surprising sight watching the veteran get knocked out clean. Expect him to bounce back in a big way, focusing on his defensive efforts and hungry to deal some punishment.
Nikita Krylov is one of the few fights in the UFC that can walk down opponents and physically impose their will with no regard for what's being thrown back at them. Krylov will walk through a barrage of punches and is supremely confident that his punches will have more effect when he's able to land.
Striking with a small reach advantage, Krylov does a good job of dictating the distance and catching opponents' strikes off-time with his own counters. His ability to chop down the legs with kicks has also been a focal point as of late, so expect another well-rounded striking attack from Krylov in this one.
Why Bogdan Guskov will win
- Last Fight: (W) Billy Elekana – SUB (guillotine, R2)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 14 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Bogdan Guskov has been on fire over this latest winning streak, and it seems as though he's fully settled in following the debut loss a few years ago. Much like Krylov, Guskov has a knack for surviving chaotic exchanges and usually coming away as the fighter landing much more damage than his opponent.
His chin is also strong but not as weathered as Krylov's, so expect him to confidently take a few on the jaw just to get his own offense off.
Guskov has used his front teep kick as a tool in the past in order to create distance between him and his opponent. He matches up well with Krylov from a physical standpoint and given the two have a similar striking game as well should bode well for the fans watching as Guskov isn't afraid of a scrap.
Guskov is also well-rounded on the ground and an opportunist when he sees and opening for a submission attempt. Krylov is a similar fighter in that sense, so there's a strong possibility we see the wrestling cancel out and these two just throw haymakers in the center of the octagon. Either way, Guskov's chin should hold up better at this point than Krylov's.
Final Nikita Krylov-Bogdan Guskov prediction & pick
This will be a great fight to open the Main Card action given both fighters' ability to throw caution to the wind and fight in a tight range. While both men possess solid submission capabilities, this should be a fight that largely takes place on the feet as both men will look to land their offense.
While Nikita Krylov is the betting favorite here, the odds should be closer to a pick'em given the similarity between both fighters and their approach to each bout, which the total under juiced as well. This fight should be a quick one given the finishing capabilities of both sides.
From there, we're going to slightly side with Bogdan Guskov's chin and believe that he can withstand more of a punch than his opponent in this one.
Final Nikita Krylov-Bogdan Guskov Prediction & Pick: Bogdan Guskov (+164)
