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UFC Abu Dhabi: Robert Whittaker versus Reinier de Ridder continues on the prelims with a fight between Asu Almabayev and Jose Ochoa in the flyweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Almabayev-Ochoa prediction and pick.
Asu Almabayev (21-3) bounced back from his first UFC loss, a third-round TKO to Manel Kape, by earning a gritty unanimous decision over Matheus Nicolau in his previous bout. Now, Almabayev eyes redemption as he enters UFC Abu Dhabi against the surging Jose Ochoa, determined to reestablish momentum in the flyweight division.
Jose Ochoa (8-1) rebounded from his first UFC loss, a unanimous decision to Lone’er Kavanagh, by delivering a spectacular second-round knockout of Cody Durden in June. Stepping into Abu Dhabi, Ochoa hopes to ride his momentum and halt Asu Almabayev’s resurgence in their pivotal flyweight matchup this weekend.
Here are the UFC Abu Dhabi Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Abu Dhabi odds: Asu Almabayev-Jose Ochoa odds
Asu Almabayev: -115
Jose Ochoa: -105
Over 2.5 rounds: -188
Under 2.5 rounds: +145
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Why Asu Almabayev will win
- Last Fight: (L) Manel Kape – KO/TKO R3
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 12 (3 KO/TKO/9 SUB)
Asu Almabayev enters UFC Abu Dhabi with clear stylistic and experiential advantages over Jose Ochoa. Almabayev is a well-rounded Kazakh flyweight with elite grappling and a deep arsenal of submissions and positional control, which have propelled him to decisive wins in both the UFC and international circuits.
His ability to mix in takedowns at a rate of nearly two per round and maintain control on the mat gives him a serious edge over Ochoa, whose takedown defense hovers around 66% and has yet to be fully tested against top-tier wrestlers.
Despite Ochoa’s powerful striking and recent highlight-reel knockout of Cody Durden, Almabayev’s mature fight IQ and cardio allow him to extend fights into the later rounds and avoid the wild exchanges that Ochoa prefers.
Almabayev’s striking is not spectacular, but it is effective, setting up his wrestling while absorbing minimal damage. His experience bouncing back from setbacks, including a competitive bout with Manel Kape, underscores his resilience and tactical adaptability.
On fight night, expect Almabayev to neutralize Ochoa’s early aggression, navigate out of danger on the feet, and gradually impose his grappling pressure. As the contest wears on, Almabayev’s ability to secure takedowns, control position, and sap Ochoa’s output should be the difference—securing a composed, disciplined win in Abu Dhabi.
Why Jose Ochoa will win
- Last Fight: (W) Cody Durden – KO/TKO R2
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 8 (7 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Jose Ochoa possesses the kind of dynamic striking and fight-ending power that can give Asu Almabayev trouble in Abu Dhabi. With seven of his eight wins coming by knockout and consistently fast starts, Ochoa’s volume kickboxing and explosive hands allow him to dictate the tempo and disrupt grapplers before they settle into their rhythm.
His recent victory over Cody Durden, a lightning-quick knockout just 11 seconds into the second round, demonstrates not just raw power but an ability to seize momentum in high-pressure moments.
Ochoa’s athleticism and durability are assets that help him rebound from adversity as shown by his ability to bounce back after a competitive debut loss to Lone’er Kavanagh.
Training out of Chute Boxe Diego Lima, Ochoa utilizes relentless forward pressure, excellent footwork, and aggressive combinations to force opponents into uncomfortable exchanges, neutralizing attempts to slow the fight with wrestling or clinch work.
While Almabayev thrives on controlling fights with takedowns and positional dominance, Ochoa’s fast pace and stellar first-round finishes increase the risks for opponents who hesitate or struggle with dynamic strikers.
If Ochoa can fend off early takedown attempts and land his signature left hand, he’s poised to turn this bout into a statement performance. Expect his youth, explosiveness, and finishing instincts to be the difference, potentially handing Almabayev another setback in the UFC flyweight division.
Final Asu Almabayev-Jose Ochoa prediction & pick
Asu Almabayev vs. Jose Ochoa is a classic striker-versus-grappler clash, making for a compelling pick in Abu Dhabi. Almabayev has demonstrated reliable wrestling, consistent takedowns, and disciplined control, often extending fights and sapping the gas tanks of explosive opponents.
His recent bounce-back win over Matheus Nicolau proved he can handle adversity and stay composed against tough competition.
Ochoa, on the other hand, brings legitimate knockout power and dynamic striking—capable of ending the fight in an instant, as he showcased with his quick KO of Cody Durden. His forward pressure and athleticism threaten any opponent, but questions linger about his takedown defense in long, grinding battles.
The fight likely hinges on Almabayev’s ability to weather early storms and impose his wrestling before Ochoa can land a decisive blow. If Almabayev controls the ground game, expect him to earn a hard-fought decision to get back on track this weekend at UFC Abu Dhabi.
Final Asu Almabayev-Jose Ochoa Prediction & Pick: Asu Almabayev (-115), Over 2.5 Rounds (-188)
