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The undisputed heavyweight championship will be back on the line when WBC, WBA, WBO, IBO and The Ring champion Oleksandr Usyk (23-0) defends his titles against IBF titleholder Daniel Dubois (22-2). It is time to continue our boxing odds series with an Oleksandr Usyk-Daniel Dubois prediction and pick.
Usyk, 38, is coming off consecutive wins over Tyson Fury in 2024. ‘The Cat' claimed the first fight in a back-and-forth affair to become the undisputed heavyweight champion, only to relinquish the IBF belt in pursuit of a rematch with Fury. Usyk dominated the second fight to set up another rematch, this time against Dubois.
Dubois, 27, claimed the IBF title that Usyk vacated with a thudding knockout of former champion Anthony Joshua. The win gave Dubois his third straight win since initially challenging Usyk for the title in 2023.
On paper, Usyk's ninth-round knockout win over Dubois is a fairly decisive result. However, it is easily the most controversial fight of the champion's undefeated professional career. Five rounds before the finish, Dubois was called for a low blow on a hit that floored Usyk, giving the Ukrainian five minutes to recover. Many fans still feel that the hit was clean, and Dubois should have been awarded a knockdown.
Here are the Oleksandr Usyk-Daniel Dubois odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Boxing Odds: Oleksandr Usyk-Daniel Dubois 2 Odds
Oleksandr Usyk: -430
Daniel Dubois: +300
Over 9.5 Rounds: -135
Under 9.5 Rounds: -115
How to Watch Oleksandr Usyk vs. Daniel Dubois 2
Time: 12:30 p.m. ET / 9:30 p.m. PT
Main event ring walk (estimated): 4:45 p.m. ET / 1:45 p.m. PT
TV/Stream: DAZN pay-per-view
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access / Save $30)*
Why Oleksandr Usyk Will Win
The phantom groin shot marred their first fight, but Usyk was winning almost every exchange until and after that moment. Although he is the much smaller man in the ring, Usyk's hand speed and head movement were too much for Dubois, who could never get his timing down.
While it feels like a lot of time has passed since the first meeting, it will be less than two years before the rematch. Dubois has looked phenomenal since then, but against three stationary power punchers and not anyone who moves or fights the way Usyk does. Usyk's straight punches, his jab and straight left, gave Dubois the most trouble.
Since moving up to heavyweight in 2019, Usyk's movement and speed have been a problem for every opponent he has faced. Dubois has improved in those areas, but is still someone who wants to walk forward and trade in the pocket. Dubois is still the only opponent Usyk has stopped at heavyweight, other than Chazz Witherspoon.
Why Daniel Dubois Will Win
To Dubois' credit, he is not hanging his hat on the groin shot and believing that will carry him through the rematch. Instead, the IBF champion believes that he is a fundamentally different fighter than he was two years ago. Coming off back-to-back upsets, Dubois has certainly improved to an unexpected level in the last two years.
The biggest factor for Dubois in the rematch is time. At 27, he is only entering his physical prime, while the 38-year-old Usyk is nearing the end of his career. Usyk has not looked like he has slowed down at all, but Dubois is the only opponent he has faced at heavyweight under the age of 30. Two of the five fighters he has faced since moving up in weight — Fury and Witherspoon — have since retired, with Derek Chisora nearing that point as well.
If Dubois is to have success in this fight, he will have to advance more than he did in their first matchup. Dubois is much more effective when he pressures than when he doesn't, and cannot let Usyk fight with a comfortable lead. The Englishman is the fighter with the much more significant power threat and can change the trajectory of any fight with his right hand.
Final Oleksandr Usyk-Daniel Dubois Prediction & Pick
It is hard to bet against either fighter with the momentum they both have, but Usyk is still just a notch above Dubois. Perhaps the first fight would have ended differently if the groin shot had been ruled a knockdown, but Dubois will need to create an equally chaotic moment in the rematch to gain the upper hand.
Since losing to Usyk, none of the three opponents Dubois has beaten are comparable to the Ukrainian. He outlasted a gassed-out Jarrell Miller before pummeling Filip Hrgovic — two quality wins, but both over fighters who had clearly already reached the peak of their careers. His most recent nod over Joshua is his best win. However, it came against a 35-year-old version of Joshua, who came off an exhibition-like knockout win over former UFC champion Francis Ngannou. Dubois hurt Joshua early and never allowed him to recover, but the winging overhand he landed in round one is not a shot that will work on Usyk.
More than anything, Dubois lured all three of his recent opponents into brawls before coming out on top. Two of them, Joshua and Miller, managed to hurt him before their chins were the first to fail. Dubois has improved enough so that Usyk should not knock him out again, but the latter's speed and movement will be too much. Usyk will claim his second undisputed championship on the scorecards.
Final Oleksandr Usyk-Daniel Dubois Prediction & Pick: Oleksandr Usyk by Decision (+185)
