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As UFC Abu Dhabi continues to heat up from the Middle East, we're set for a betting prediction and pick for the Featured Prelim bout of the night, taking place in the Bantamweight (135) Division on Saturday. USA's No. 15-ranked Bryce Mitchell will take on Russia's Said Nurmagomedov in a can't-miss scrap. Check the UFC odds for our Mitchell-Nurmagomedov prediction and pick.
Bryce Mitchell (17-3) has gone 8-3 during his UFC stint since 2018. After opening his UFC tenure with six consecutive wins, Mitchell has gone 2-3 over his last five fights since facing top talent in the division. He'll look to defend his Top 15 ranking with another tough challenge in this one. Mitchell stands 5-foot-10 with a 70-inch reach.
Said Nurmagomedov (18-4) is currently 7-3 under the UFC banner since 2018. Starting his UFC run on a 6-1 streak, he's gone 1-2 over his last three fights since also upping his competition level. He'll look to crack the rankings with a win in his first fight as the betting underdog. Nurmagomedov stands 5-foot-8 with a 70-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Abu Dhabi Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Abu Dhabi odds: Bryce Mitchell-Said Nurmagomedov odds
Bryce Mitchell: -130
Said Nurmagomedov: +110
Over 2.5 rounds: -154
Under 2.5 rounds: +120
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Why Bryce Mitchell will win
- Last Fight: (L) Jean Silva – SUB (ninja choke, R2)
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 1 KO/TKO, 9 SUB
While Bryce Mitchell has gone a lackluster 1-2 in his last three fights, the losses have come against top fighters in Josh Emmett and Jean Silva. Both opponents were similar in their one-punch knockout threat, so it was clear Mitchell was hesitant to close the distance against a heavy hitter in both of those bouts.
This fight will be about getting back on track and going back towards his grappling, which got him to this position in the first place.
Bryce Mitchell will have a stern advantage on the ground during this matchup despite Nurmagomedov's six wins by submission.
Mitchell is very adept at transitioning through the scrambles, and although he's been caught before, he's usually able to work his way out of bad situations. He'll need to be cautious of Nurmagomedov's long limbs and ability to reach for guillotines and other chokes.
Still, Mitchell is the rightful favorite here thanks to his grappling, and it should bail him out if he's getting beaten on the feet. Mitchell lands on just 36% of his takedown attempts, but consistently going back to that well and threatening with level changes should keep his opponent guessing and on the defensive.
Why Said Nurmagomedov will win
- Last Fight: (L) Vinicius Oliveira – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 4 KO/TKO, 6 SUB
Said Nurmagomedov fell in his last fight to Vinicius Oliveira, but it's a strong testament to opponents not being able to handle Oliveira's awkward fighting style.
Nurmagomedov is a technician with his striking and prefers to display his Muay Thai skills from a safe striking distance. With the longer frame and better distance management, look for Nurmagomedov to try and settle into his striking rhythm early.
Nurmagomedov will undoubtedly have to defend the takedowns during this fight, currently doing so with 62% accuracy. His successful takedown rate is much lower at just 15%, so he may have to use Mitchell's shots against him as he tries to reverse positions with his Judo throws.
Either way, Nurmagomedov will have to hold his own as this fight is likely to hit the ground at some point.
To be successful here, Nurmagomedov can discourage Mitchell from closing the distance with his active use of the kicking game. He's great in snapping his kicks to all three levels, so it should put up a threat that Mitchell will have to adjust to immediately. Expect Nurmagomedov to repeat this tactic in giving himself some room to operate from striking range.
Final Bryce Mitchell-Said Nurmagomedov prediction & pick
This fight has all the makings of a great one as we'll see a grappling expert in Bryce Mitchell pitted against a striking savant in Said Nurmagomedov. Both men are coming in following disappointing losses at the hands of rising opponents, so it'll be interesting to see who makes the proper adjustments ahead of this matchup.
While Said Nurmagomedov is a solid grappler in his own right, Mitchell is particularly dangerous with his unorthodox submission attempts and ability to twist opponents up on the ground. Aside from that, Nurmagomedov can only stand to win this fight if it remains on the feet for the entire duration.
While Bryce Mitchell is bound to sustain some damage throughout this one, I expect him to catch an eventual leg kick and bring this fight to the ground. From there, we should see Mitchell will a small advantage where he controls the wrestling and ultimately wins on the scorecards.
Final Bryce Mitchell-Said Nurmagomedov Prediction & Pick: Bryce Mitchell (-130)
