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One of the greatest boxers of all time re-enters the ring when Manny Pacquiao (62-8-2) returns to challenge WBC welterweight champion Mario Barrios (29-2-1). It is time to continue our boxing odds series with a Mario Barrios-Manny Pacquiao prediction and pick.
Barrios, 30, retained his title in a split draw with Abel Ramos on the undercard of the Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson event on Netflix. Despite entering the fight as a sizeable favorite, Barrios engaged in a brawl that saw both fighters hit the canvas. The result leaves him without a win since beating Fabian Maidana by unanimous decision in May 2024.
Pacquiao, 46, has not fought since losing his title to Yordenis Ugas in August 2019. He has competed in two exhibition bouts since, beating DK Yoo by decision and fighting Rukiya Anpo to a draw. Pacquiao's last win came against former champion Keith Thurman in July 2019.
Here are the Mario Barrios-Manny Pacquiao odds, courtesy of FanDuel
Boxing Odds: Mario Barrios-Manny Pacquiao Odds
Mario Barrios: -280
Manny Pacquiao: +210
Over 11.5 Rounds: -110
Under 11.5 Rounds: -116
How to Watch Mario Barrios vs. Manny Pacquiao
Time: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
Main event ring walk (estimated): 11 p.m. ET / 8 p.m. PT
TV/Stream: PBC PPV on Amazon Prime Video
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access / Save $30)*
Why Mario Barrios Will Win
Manny Pacquiao is the biggest name opponent Barrios has faced to date, but far from the best one. This version of Pacquiao has not looked like himself for nearly a decade and is now trying to return nearly four years after his last fight. Pacquiao looked every bit of 45 in his three-round exhibition bout against Anpo, which was over a year before this fight.
Not only will Pacquiao be 15 years older, but he will also be comically smaller than Barrios. Pacquiao, who spent most of his career competing at around 130 pounds, will be seven inches shorter than Barrios, with a five-inch shorter reach. Pacquiao will have to close the distance against Barrios, something he was unable to do in his exhibition with Anpo, who was also much bigger than him. Needless to say, Barrios is a much crisper boxer than Anpo, a kickboxer.
Coming off one of the worst performances of his career, Barrios is being set up to shine in a headlining spot. A loss here would be catastrophic to his career and end any hopes of him becoming the next star at welterweight. Pacquiao's aggressiveness and chin have unsurprisingly withered away with his age.
Why Manny Pacquiao Will Win
In his last fight, Barrios was supposed to run through Ramos, but instead struggled to put him away early and got lured into a dogfight late. Barrios has a history of falling short of expectations, but is yet again set up to collect a big highlight against an aging legend.
Pacquiao will be much smaller than Barrios, but he has been competing as the smaller man at welterweight since 2009. Barrios is a particularly large 147-pounder, but Pacquiao has made a career out of fighting his way into the pocket, which has become a second home to him. Barrios showed in his last fight with Ramos that he is not as adept in that regard. If Pacquiao can close the distance, he can make the champion uncomfortable.
If Pacquiao lets Barrios fight from the outside, he has almost no chance. Barrios has the ability to keep the fight at his range, but got lazy against Ramos after knocking him down before getting floored himself. To his credit, Pacquiao has not been knocked out since 2012 and could prove to be tougher than Barrios might expect.
Final Mario Barrios-Manny Pacquiao Prediction & Pick
If this fight had happened in 2010, Pacquiao would have run away with it. The issue for him is that it isn't, and a 46-year-old Pacquiao is now being tasked with facing a six-foot-tall champion who has yet to lose at 147 pounds. Barrios will fight with a seven-inch height advantage and a five-inch edge in reach.
Barrios got criticized for struggling in the second half of his fight with Ramos, which likely makes Pacquiao confident that he can replicate that game plan. But at 46, Pacquiao's speed, footwork, and chin are nowhere near where they used to be. He no longer has the ability to effectively close the distance against a long fighter like Ramos, who is adept at attacking his opponents as they advance.
In some cases, the younger fighter often gives the older challenger too much respect. That could be the case here, particularly with Barrios' habit of cruising with a lead late in fights, the same pattern that got him into trouble against Ramos. Barrios, however, feels disrespected by Pacquiao choosing him as his opponent in his return fight. Pacquiao has not been knocked out since 2012, but he barely lasted through his three-round exhibition bout last year, and is now slated to fight for 12 rounds.
Final Mario Barrios-Manny Pacquiao Prediction & Pick: Mario Barrios by KO/TKO (+130)
