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The UFC Shanghai Main Card continues to roll as we bring you a betting prediction and pick for this ranked matchup in the Heavyweight Division. No. 3-ranked Sergei Pavlovich of Russia will face off against No. 6 Waldo Cortes-Acosta of the Dominican Republic. Check the UFC odds for our Pavlovich-Cortes-Acosta prediction and pick.
Sergei Pavlovich (19-3) has gone 7-3 inside the UFC since 2018. He's been in the Heavyweight Division's upper echelon for the last few years, defeating names like Curtis Blaydes and Jairzinho Rozenstruik most recently. He'll look to hold his position and knock off a hyped prospect in this one. Pavlovich stands 6-foot-3 with an 84-inch reach.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta (14-1) has gone an impressive 7-1 inside the UFC since 2022, quickly working his way to the top-10 rankings. He's on a five-fight winning streak with latest victories over Ryan Spann and Serghei Spivac, but a win here could earn him a title shot sooner rather than later. Cortes-Acosta stands 6-foot-4 with a 78-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Shanghai Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Shanghai Odds: Sergei Pavlovich-Waldo Cortes-Acosta Odds
Sergei Pavlovich: -258
Waldo Cortes-Acosta: +210
Over 1.5 rounds: -180
Under 1.5 rounds: +140
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Why Sergei Pavlovich Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Jairzinho Rozenstruik – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 15 KO/TKO
Sergei Pavlovich turned in a complete performance last time out against Rozenstruik, out-striking his opponent by a significant margin and landing three takedowns in the process. Up until this point, Pavlovich has always been known as a one-round fighter who is usually knocking his opponents out. His last two fights have seen him fight to a decision, so we could see him turning a corner in terms of his approach against top talent.
During this fight, Pavlovich could actually benefit from rushing Cortes-Acosta and forcing him to make a decision. His opponent is far more fluid on the feet when he's allowed distance to work with, but Pavlovich is most dangerous when taking that space away and rushing opponents with his blitzes. If he can't make it work in the first round, at least he now has the confidence to put together three full rounds with a game plan behind it.
Pavlovich has much more experience at this level and once again, he'll have the reach advantage he uses so well in each of his fights. He should have the length needed to keep Cortes-Acosta at the end of his punches and out of range from his chin. Expect a vintage Pavlovich performance in this fight.
Why Waldo Cortes-Acosta Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Serghei Spivac – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Waldo Cortes-Acosta has looked every bit of a top prospect in the Heavyweight Division as each passing victory shows a new wrinkle added to his game. He's one of the more fluid boxers we've seen in this weight class in quite some time, indicative of his 111 total strikes landed against a strong opponent in Serghei Spivac. Cortes-Acosta also defended four of Spivac's six takedown attempts, no easy task against a fighter with a 62% takedown accuracy.
As Cortes-Acosta continues to evolve, his significant strike defense continues to improve to 56%. On the feet, he should have the head movement and cage presence necessary to fend off a blitzing Pavlovich. He did exactly that in his fight against a similar styled Robelis Despaigne, forcing him into a third round and putting on the pressure late. Don't be surprised if Cortes-Acosta opts for a similar tactic in this one.
His greatest strength will be his ability to counter the straight shots of Pavlovich with lateral movement and quick jabs from awkward angles. Acosta does a great job of keeping the striking distance at a safe range for himself, so expect much of the same during this fight.
Final Sergei Pavlovich-Waldo Cortes-Acosta Prediction & Pick
This will be a great fight to determine a possible title challenger in the Heavyweight Division and by all accounts, both men are ready for their shot. Sergei Pavlovich is the betting favorite thanks to his experience against top competition. His recent ability to fight a complete three rounds has him even more dangerous ahead of this matchup.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta, on the other hand, has shown every ability of a future title challenger and ride a five-fight streak into this one. His boxing is built to take down anyone in the division, but it'll be interesting to see if he can fend off Pavlovich for long enough in order to show his skills.
Ultimately, I think Pavlovich's recent ability to push the pace in later rounds could be beneficial given his threat in the first round. While Waldo Cortes-Acosta has been incredibly consistent as of late, this is a big step up in competition for him. Let's roll with Sergei Pavlovich and the total over in this one.
Final Sergei Pavlovich-Waldo Cortes-Acosta Prediction & Pick: Sergei Pavlovich (-258); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-180)
