The UFC Vegas 112 Main Card is heating up as we're back to bring you a betting prediction and pick for this high-level tilt in the Featherweight (145) Division. Brazil's Melquizael Costa will take on France's Morgan Charriere in a scrap you won't want to miss! Check our UFC odds series for the Costa-Charriere prediction and pick.
Melquizael Costa (24-7) has gone 5-2 since joining the UFC roster in 2023. After dropping his bout against Steve Garcia, Costa has gone on to win four-straight bouts with two submissions and two unanimous decisions. He comes into the biggest spot of his career against an equally-skilled prospect. Costa stands 5-foot-10 with a 71-inch reach.
Morgan Charriere (21-11-1) is 3-2 inside the UFC since 2023. The former Cage Warriors product has alternated wins and losses for a 2-2 over his last four fights, most recently beating Nate Landwehr in a “Fight of the Night” effort. He'll look for consecutive UFC wins for the first time in his tenure. Charriere stands 5-foot-8 with a 69-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 112 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 112 Odds: Melquizael Costa-Morgan Charriere Odds
Melquizael Costa: -110
Morgan Charriere: -110
Over 2.5 rounds: -215
Under 2.5 rounds: +165
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Why Melquizael Costa Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Julian Erosa – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 8 SUB
Melquizael Costa put together a perfect performance against Julian Erosa his last time out, out-striking his opponent 128-85 throughout the three rounds. Costa was also dominant in reversing three takedowns from Erosa on the ground, giving him a clear advantage in all areas of the fight. If he's able to be dominant in a similar fashion against Charriere, we should see him cruise to another decisive three-round win.
Melquizael Costa is good in all areas of the fight, but his submission grappling is what really stands out with eight wins already under his belt. Not only is he extremely resourceful in reversing positions, but he does a great job of moving out of bad positions and finding advantageous control on the ground. If he manages to take the back during this fight, expect Charriere to have a tough time in shaking him off.
Costa is also very skilled on the feet and loves to mix up his looks with both his punches and low leg kicks. His power isn't typically enough to put opponents out with one punch, but he's very aggressive in chasing the finish if he senses his opponent is already hurt. Expect Costa to be an extremely difficult matchup for Charriere, frustrating him at several points throughout this fight.
Why Morgan Charriere Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Nate Landwehr – TKO (punches, R3)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 13 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Morgan Charriere notched a solid win over a tough opponent in Nate Landwehr, earning his second “Fight of the Night” effort since joining the UFC. He already has two performance bonuses under his belt thanks to his finishing abilities on the feet, but Charriere may be in for another back-and-forth, “Fight of the Night” contender with a game opponent like Costa. He's risen to the occasion each time up to this point as fans should be in for another fun scrap.
Charriere is extremely polished with all his striking techniques and doesn't typically make too many mistakes when striking in the pocket against opponents. His ability to flow with the striking and slip out of range is very conducive to his style, counter-punching and hitting opponents with perfectly-timed punches. His kicking game is also lethal and he's been known to hit the mark on a number of head kicks in the past.
Morgan Charriere may be fighting a more defensively-minded bout this time around against an active striker like Costa, so patience will be at the forefront of his game plan early on. Costa has been known to turn a technical fight into a brawl in the past, so fully expect Charriere to match the striking pace of his opponent throughout this one.
Final Melquizael Costa-Morgan Charriere Prediction & Pick
This has all the makings of yet another “Fight of the Night” from both sides as both men are seemingly incapable of a boring fight. Both men are technical strikers with Morgan Charriere being the slightly more polished of the two. Melquizael Costa is the much better grappler, however, and will immediately have the advantage if this fight hits the ground.
While this should be the closest fight of the entire night, I expect Melquizael Costa to have a significant advantage with his hand speed and countering the wrestling from Charriere. Costa has the far greater finishing upside on the ground, so we'll roll with him to get the win in what should be a fun back-and-forth fight.
Final Melquizael Costa-Morgan Charriere Prediction & Pick: Melquizael Costa (-110); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-215)
