Two teams hoping to make a run in the playoffs in the AFC face off on Monday night as the Miami Dolphins visit the Pittsburgh Steelers. It is time to continue our NFL odds series with a Dolphins-Steelers prediction and pick.
The Dolphins come into the game at 6-7, which is good for third in the AFC East. They started the season slowly, with three straight losses, and lost six of their first seven games overall. The team has been much better since then. The Dolphins have now won four straight games, including a 30-13 victory over the Buffalo Bills. In their last game, the Dolphins faced the New York Jets. It was a dominating performance by the Dolphins, defeating the Jets 34-10.
Meanwhile, the Steelers are 7-6 on the year. After a 4-1 start to the season, the team lost five of its next seven games. Last time out, the Steelers faced the Ravens for the first time this year. The Steelers started strong, leading 17-9 at the end of the first half. The Steelers continued to build their lead into the fourth quarter. Still, the Ravens nearly made the comeback. Regardless, the Steelers went on to win the game 27-22.
NFL betting odds courtesy of DraftKings.
Dolphins vs. Steelers Odds
Dolphins: +3 (+100)
Steelers: -3 (-120)
Over: 42.5 (-110)
Under: 42.5 (-110)
Dolphins vs. Steelers Key Injuries
Dolphins- RB De'Von Achance (Questionable), LB Caleb Johnson (Questionable), S Elijah Campbell (Questionable), LB Tyler Dodson (Questionable)
Steelers- WR DK Metcalf (Questionable), OT Calvin Anderson (Out), DT Derrick Harmon (Questionable), S Kyle Dugger (Questionable), G Andrus Peat (Questionable), TJ Watt (Questionable)
Dolphins vs Steelers Betting Trends
– The Dolphins are 7-6 ATS this year. They are 3-3 ATS on the road this season.
– The Steelers are 6-7 ATS this year. They are 3-3 against the spread at home this season.
– The Dolphins are 4-3 against the spread when an underdog this year.
– The Steelers are 3-3 ATS when a favorite this season.
– The over is 7-5-1 this year in Dolphins games, but the under has hit in four of the last five games.
– The over is 7-6 this year in Steelers games, although the over has hit in two of the last three Steelers games.
Keys to Dolphins vs Steelers
The Dolphins' offense has not been good this year. They are 22nd in the NFL in points per game and 25th in yards per game. They have not passed the ball well this year, sitting 28th in the league in passing yards per game, but eighth in the run. If the Dolphins are going to pull the upset, it's going to start on the ground. De'Von Achane has led the way on the ground this year. He has run for 1,126 yards and seven touchdowns this year. He is dealing with a nagging injury, but will likely play. If not, the duties on the ground will go to Ollie Gordon, who has been solid, running for 191 yards and three scores this year.
The Steelers' defense has been middle of the pack this year. They are 19th in opponent points per game and 28th in yards per game. They are 28th against the pass and 21st against the run. The Steelers' run defense has struggled at times this year, and Achane is going to have a solid game. It will be even better if TJ Watt is out, as he went to the hospital on Thursday, dealing with a lung issue.
Meanwhile, the Steelers will need to exploit the poor defense on the ground of the Dolphins. The Dolphins are 15th in the NFL in opponent points per game while sitting 19th in opponent yards per game. The defense has been solid against the pass, allowing just 202.6 yards per game, which is 12th in the league. Regardless, the defense has heavily struggled against the run, sitting 25th in the NFL in opponent rushing yards per game.
The Steelers have not run the ball well this year. They are 29th in the NFL in rushing yards per game. Keeping the run game going has been a major issue for the Steelers. Last week was a prime example, as the team ran for just 34 total yards and almost gave up a lead due to not being able to control the clock. Jaylen Warren is going to need to have a better game this week. He ran for just 13 yards on eight carries in his last game. Overall, he has run for 652 yards with four touchdowns. He has two receiving scores. If he can control the ground game, the Steelers are strong enough to build a lead and sit on it.
Dolphins vs. Steelers Prediction and Pick
The Steelers are coming off a solid win over the Ravens, and the defense played well for most of the game. Rodgers had a solid game and continued to play well. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are coming off a victory over the Jets. The Jets were depleted by injuries in the game, and the Fins took advantage of that. This is going to be a tough game for them. The Dolphins' defense has struggled against the pass, and this is a perfect game for Rodgers to be great.
It is also a game the weather is going to play a factor. Temperatures are expected to be around 20 degrees at kick-off and get colder throughout the game. That is a situation that Tua will struggle with. This should be a low-scoring game with the Steelers coming away with the win.
Final Dolphins vs. Steelers Prediction and Pick: Steelers -3 (-120) and Under 42.5 (-110)
