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We're back with yet another betting prediction and pick for UFC Saudi Arabia: Adesanya vs. Imavov as we turn our attention towards the Feature Prelim of the night in the Heavyweight Division. No 12 Shamil Gaziev of Bahrain will take on newcomer Thomas Petersen of Minnesota. Check the UFC odds series for our Gaziev-Petersen prediction and pick.
Shamil Gaziev (12-1) comes in with a 2-1 record in the UFC since 2023. He managed to knock out Martin Buday in his debut fight before dropping his second bout to Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Most recently, he beat Don'Tale Mayes via unanimous decision and will be looking to notch back-to-back wins for the first time as the sizable betting favorite. Gaziev stands 6-foot-4 with a 78.5-inch reach.
Thomas Petersen (9-2) will make his third walk to the UFC octagon with a 1-1 record under the promotion. He lost to Jamal Pogues during his debut, but bounced back with a unanimous decision win over Mohammed Usman most recently. He'll now look to build some momentum if he can beat his first ranked opponent. Petersen stands 6-foot-1 with a 74-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Saudi Arabia Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Saudi Arabia Odds: Shamil Gaziev-Thomas Petersen Odds
Shamil Gaziev: -360
Thomas Petersen: +285
Over 1.5 rounds: -160
Under 1.5 rounds: +124
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Why Shamil Gaziev Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Don'Tale Mayes – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO, 3 SUB
Shamil Gaziev is a very difficult fight for most opponents given his physical stature and insane ability to withstand damage. He's a very strong grappler and with a long reach, does a great job of deterring opponents with his constant jab down the middle. He's effective at moving his head in the pocket and slipping punches when he can, but he's far more dangerous when forcing his opponent onto their back foot. Look for him to be aggressive once again in walking Petersen down during the striking exchanges.
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Gaziev should be able to deter Petersen from grappling with him due to his experience submitting opponents. He could stand to see success if he brings Petersen down, but it's easier said than done as Petersen boasts a 100% takedown defense rate. This fight is expected to take place on the feet and the focus for Gaziev will be sustaining his energy as making it all three rounds. Expect him to take things slow from the beginning before opening up when he finds a weakness in his opponent.
Why Thomas Petersen Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Mohammed Usman – U DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 7 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Thomas Petersen comes into this fight following a resilient win over Mohammed Usman as the betting underdog. Not many experts gave him a chance to win, but he did a great job in stuffing the wrestling of Usman and forcing him to stand and strike. He'll have a much more willing striker as an opponent in this one, so expect Petersen to be on-point and technical with his striking. His takedown defense rate is perfect and he's been known to display some quick boxing hands during his prior appearances.
Petersen will have to be the more active fighter in terms of his striking and knowing his opponent has gassed out in the past, he should look to engage the clinch and ride Gaziev along the fence. From there, Petersen will have to remain dangerous off the break as he continues to search for clean combinations down the middle. If he's able to land early and deter his opponent from closing the distance, he could win this fight on the back of his movement and constant activity.
Final Shamil Gaziev-Thomas Petersen Prediction & Pick
We should have another exciting fight atop this Prelim card as both men come into this fight following a recent win. Both Gaziev and Petersen have yet to be taken down in their UFC runs and while both men are capable grapplers, I expect the vast majority of this fight to take place on the feet. While Thomas Petersen is the more aggressive fighter with more forward movement, Shamil Gaziev will have the reach advantage and strong chin when taking damage.
I expect the reach of Gaziev to be the deciding factor in this fight as he makes it difficult for opponents to close the distance against him. Thomas Petersen would benefit from attacking the legs of Gaziev given he doesn't check too many of them, but I don't expect it to be much of a factor from the opening bell.
For our final betting prediction, let's roll with Shamil Gaziev to win this fight as the total rounds goes over.
Final Shamil Gaziev-Thomas Petersen Prediction & Pick: Shamil Gaziev (-360); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-160)
