We're back for another betting prediction and pick inside the NBA as we take a look at this cross-conference matchup between top contenders. The Boston Celtics (38-19) take on the Denver Nuggets (36-22) as Denver holds a 1-0 series lead in this final meeting. Check our NBA odds series for the Celtics-Nuggets prediction and pick.
The Boston Celtics are second in the Eastern Conference, trailing by 4.5 games after beating the Phoenix Suns 97-81 during their last game. The win marked four-straight victories as they're seriously heating up with nine wins over their last 10 games heading into this one.
The Denver Nuggets are fourth in the Western Conference following a 128-117 loss to the Golden State Warriors. They've alternated wins and losses over their last seven games for a 3-4 record, but they come into this home game as the surprising betting favorites looking to sweep Boston.
NBA odds courtesy of DraftKings
Celtics vs. Nuggets Odds
Boston Celtics: +3.5 (-112)
Denver Nuggets: -3.5 (-108)
Over: 228.5 (-105)
Under: 228.5 (-115)
Celtics vs. Nuggets Key Injuries
Boston: NOT YET SUBMITTED (update to come)
Denver: Julian Strawther (toe – Probable) / Jamal Murray (hamstring – Probable) / Tamar Bates (foot – OUT) / Aaron Gordon (hamstring – OUT) / Jalen Pickett (knee – OUT) / Peyton Watson (hamstring – OUT)
Celtics vs. Nuggets Betting Trends
- The Denver Nuggets are 15-11 at home this season. The Boston Celtics are 20-10 on the road.
- The Nuggets are 27-12 as betting favorites. The Celtics are 8-7 as underdogs.
- The Nuggets have gone 32-26 ATS overall, 12-14 ATS at home. The Celtics are 33-24 ATS overall, 20-10 ATS on the road.
- The Celtics are 6-4 outright in their last 10 games against the Nuggets.
- The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Boston's last 13 games.
- The total has gone OVER in nine of Denver's last 11 games.
Keys to Celtics vs. Nuggets Matchup
The Denver Nuggets managed a 114-110 win on the road during the only other meeting between these two teams, fueled by a 30-point outburst from Peyton Watson. Jamal Murray notched a career-high in assists that game with a staggering 17, finding his teammates and cutting up the Celtics' defense in the process. Watson is out for this one and Murray is probable with a nagging hamstring injury, so his availability will be key for the Nuggets team at home.
However, the Nuggets have had a next-man-up mentality all season, going an impressive 4-1 without Murray in the lineup and posting a winning 10-6 in games without Nikola Jokic. Look for players like Bruce Brown and Tim Hardaway Jr. to. continue adding meaningful scoring off the bench as the Nuggets continue to lead all NBA teams in overall offensive rating (120..9) this season.
Celtics' Jaylen Brown missed their last game with a bruised right knee, but he could have been getting addition rest ahead of this road tilt. Derrick White stepped up with 22 points and we've seen Payton Pritchard hitting marks of 26pts/26pts/30pts in three of his last four games. Don't be surprised if the Celtics give Jaylen Brown another game off given how hot White and Pritchard have been in the last five games.
The Celtics key against a hobbled Denver team will be their ball movement and ability to find the open three. They make the third-most three-pointers per game (15.4), but it's the Nuggets leading the NBA in three-point percentage at 39.4% – the key to this game may just be whichever team has the better night shooting from beyond the arc and can sustain that through all four quarters.
Celtics vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick
The Nuggets have the upper hand in this game thanks to previous success, but the loss of Peyton Watson and Jamal Murray playing on hobbled legs could hurt their chances. Against a porous Celtics' interior, expect Nikola Jokic to hover around triple-double territory as he'll be looking to do everything from an offensive standpoint.
The Celtics, however, have been the much hotter team overall and while they may be without Jaylen Brown for this one, Payton Pritchard has been scoring at a wild rate these last four games and has been the difference in the Celtics winning their matchups. If they can come out strong on the road and get hot from three, the Celtics could be in position to lead this game early.
However, the Nuggets have been consistent in bouncing back from losses and they're happy to be at home following a three-game road trip. Following recent trends, we like the Denver Nuggets to cover this slim margin at home behind a massive game from Nikola Jokic. These are also two of the NBA's best offenses so we'll side with the over.
Final Celtics-Nuggets Prediction & Pick: Denver Nuggets -3.5 (-108); OVER 228.5 (-105)
