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It is time to continue our college football odds series with an SMU-Duke prediction and pick. Find out how to watch SMU-Duke.
The SMU Mustangs have authored quite a story in college football this season. They looked terrible in the first few weeks of the season. They were 27.5-point favorites in Week Zero versus Nevada and were lucky to win that game outright. They won by five points with a very late rally and came uncomfortably close to suffering one of the most embarrassing defeats of the 2024 season. Then they lost at home to BYU in an ugly, low-scoring game played before BYU rose to prominence in the Big 12. At the time, that loss looked bad; it doesn't look nearly as bad now. Nevertheless, SMU's offense just wasn't functioning well. Something need to change in a big way for the Mustangs to reach their potential this year.
Sure enough, head coach Rhett Lashlee pulled the trigger on a quarterback switch, inserting Kevin Jennings for Preston Stone. Instantly, the SMU offense took off. The Ponies put 42 points on the board against Florida State. They won a high-scoring game on the road against Louisville. Last week, they went to Stanford and did not suffer any problems from a long trip to the West Coast. They easily handled the Trees on The Farm in Palo Alto. SMU is a top-20 team which is right in the middle of the ACC race, behind Miami and Clemson. SMU shows what an in-season change can do. The Mustangs also illustrate the importance of having a quality backup quarterback ready to call upon when needed. A lot of other programs with more stature and prominence than SMU have not had a good No. 2 quarterback to turn to when the starter struggles.
SMU now faces a Duke team which has been able to pull out close wins on a consistent basis this season. Duke beat Florida State for the first time ever, capitalizing on Seminole mistakes. The Blue Devils came from behind to beat rival North Carolina. The Blue Devils aren't an imposing, overwhelming team, but they have definitely been resilient and have mastered the art of the timely play, rescuing themselves from difficult positions over and over again under first-year head coach Manny Diaz.
Here are the SMU-Duke College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: SMU-Duke Odds
SMU: -11.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -480
Duke: +11.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +360
Over: 48.5 (-110)
Under: 48.5 (-110)
How to Watch SMU vs Duke
Time: 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT
TV: ACC Network
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why SMU Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Mustangs are the much better team with the much better offense. Duke has been able to handle opponents which make mistakes and leave points on the field, but SMU is unlikely to do that. This team has become dramatically better with Kevin Jennings at quarterback. SMU has shown no real discomfort on the road — occasional wobbles, but not profound and sustained struggles — since Jennings became the main man under center. If SMU could score in the 30s at Louisville and in the 40s at Stanford, it can play to a similar standard at Duke and cover the spread.
Why Duke Could Cover The Spread/Win
Duke has found a way to consistently stay close in games and then surge in the fourth quarter to pick off the outright win. Here, with Duke getting 11.5 points on the spread, the Blue Devils don't even have to make that late game-winning rally. They can just stay moderately close and cover the number.
Final SMU-Duke Prediction & Pick
The lean is to Duke, but SMU deserves respect for what it is doing in ACC play under Kevin Jennings. This is a game in which a pregame bet probably isn't worth the risk; a live bet might be the better route to travel here.
Final SMU-Duke Prediction & Pick: Duke +11.5
