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UFC Shanghai: Johnny Walker versus Mingyang Zhang continues the prelims with a fight between SuYoung You and Long Xiao in the bantamweight division on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our You-Xiao prediction and pick.
SuYoung You (15-3) comes into this weekend’s matchup riding back-to-back UFC victories. He smothered AJ Cunningham with relentless grappling for a unanimous decision win in March, following a dominant points win over Baergeng Jieleyisi in his UFC debut last November. Now, You aims to build a streak against Long Xiao.
Long Xiao (27-9) returned to the win column with a third-round knockout of Quang Le in November 2024 after a tough split decision loss to Chang Ho Lee in June. The bantamweight has been solid with five wins in his last six bouts and now aims to carry momentum into this weekend's fight against SuYoung You.
Here are the UFC Shanghai Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Shanghai odds: SuYoung You-Long Xiao odds
SuYoung You: -130
Long Xiao: +110
Over 2.5 rounds: -315
Under 2.5 rounds: +230
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Why SuYoung You will win
- Last Fight: (W) AJ Cunningham – DEC
- Last 5: 4-0, 1 NC
- Finishes: 8 (3 KO/TKO/5 SUB)
SuYoung You enters UFC Shanghai with a significant advantage over Long Xiao due to his superior grappling and control. Known for his relentless pressure and high fight IQ, You consistently imposes his will on opponents by neutralizing their striking and dictating the pace on the ground. His recent wins showcase his ability to maintain dominance through tight wrestling and smothering top control.
Against Xiao, whose strengths lie mainly in striking and knockout power, You’s game plan to force the fight to the mat could be decisive. Xiao’s recent knockout win highlights his dangerous hands, but his striking defense can be vulnerable against wrestlers who chain takedowns and keep the action close. SuYoung You’s takedown accuracy and ability to control position will frustrate Xiao and limit his offensive opportunities.
Additionally, You has shown improved cardio and patience, enabling him to grind through tough opponents and capitalize on openings late in fights. Xiao’s tendency to push the pace early may leave him gasping for air in the later rounds, giving You the chance to dominate and potentially finish the fight.
You’s cohesive skill set in grappling, improved striking defense, and tactical fight management make him the clear favorite to outlast and outwork Xiao at UFC Shanghai.
Why Long Xiao will win
- Last Fight: (W) Quang Le – KO/TKO R3
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 14 (5 KO/TKO/9 SUB)
Long Xiao’s experience and striking power make him a formidable opponent for SuYoung You at UFC Shanghai. With 27 wins under his belt, Xiao brings a proven knockout ability that can change the fight in an instant. His recent third-round knockout demonstrates his dangerous striking and ability to finish when opportunities arise.
While You excels in grappling and control, Xiao’s solid takedown defense and striking variety pose real challenges. He can keep the fight standing, where he holds a clear advantage with crisp combinations and powerful shots. If Xiao establishes distance early and keeps You at bay, he can dictate the pace and avoid prolonged grappling exchanges.
Xiao’s resilience and experience in high-pressure situations also give him an edge mentally. He has faced top-tier competition and knows how to capitalize on small mistakes by his opponents. If he maintains composure and uses his striking to disrupt You’s rhythm, Xiao can wear down his opponent and finish strong.
Xiao’s knockout power, combined with his ability to control where the fight takes place, makes him the likely winner. If he can prevent You from implementing his ground game, Xiao will emerge victorious at UFC Shanghai.
Final SuYoung You-Long Xiao prediction & pick
The matchup between SuYoung You and Long Xiao at UFC Shanghai promises to be an exciting clash of styles. You’s grappling mastery and relentless pressure have earned him solid victories, demonstrating his ability to control opponents on the ground. His patience and fight IQ allow him to dictate the pace, wearing down foes over time while minimizing damage.
Long Xiao, on the other hand, brings a wealth of experience and knockout power to the cage. With 27 career wins, Xiao is a proven finisher capable of turning the tide with a single strike. His recent knockout victory confirms his dangerous striking arsenal and ability to capitalize on openings.
The key to this fight will be whether You can implement his grappling game and take Xiao off his feet. If successful, You will likely control the later rounds and edge out a decision or finish. However, if Xiao can keep the fight standing and use his superior striking, he has the power to end the fight early.
Overall, this fight feels like it will go to the grappler’s advantage. Expect SuYoung You to secure a hard-fought victory by decision or late-round submission at UFC Shanghai.
Final SuYoung You-Long Xiao Prediction & Pick: SuYoung You (-130), Over 2.5 Rounds (-315)
