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This isn’t an alternate universe—the news is real. Bill Belichick is officially the head coach of the North Carolina Tar Heels football team. And no matter how many times it’s said or written, it’s a headline that will feel surreal for quite some time.
UNC agreed to a three-year deal with the 72-year-old NFL legend, marking one of the most unprecedented moves in the history of college football. Whether you call it a bold hire or a highly questionable one, this is a monumental moment in the sport and for North Carolina football.
Never before has someone of Belichick’s stature made a transition like this—not just from the NFL to college, but from leading the New England Patriots, the last true NFL dynasty, to a program that hasn’t won a conference title since 1980.
Belichick’s presence instantly makes North Carolina one of the most intriguing teams to watch in 2025. Much like Deion Sanders’ arrival at Colorado, the Tar Heels now have a coach whose every move will be scrutinized. From his interactions with players and assistants to his sideline demeanor, Belichick’s adaptation to the college game will be fascinating to watch.
But how will it all play out? It’s impossible to predict with certainty, but here are a few bold predictions for Belichick’s first year in Chapel Hill.
Bill Belichick lands a top transfer portal quarterback
Belichick missed out on this recruiting cycle—which ranked the worst in the ACC—but his timing coincides perfectly with the transfer portal window, which remains open until Dec. 28. With players actively filtering in and out, the former Patriots coach has the opportunity to reshape his roster quickly.
One glaring hole for the Tar Heels is at quarterback. With last year’s starter Jacolby Criswell leaving and only freshman Bryce Baker as a viable option, Belichick is likely to target a top quarterback in the portal. The draw of playing for a six-time Super Bowl-winning coach could attract some of the best talent available, and it wouldn’t be surprising if more players enter the portal now that Belichick has been officially hired.
However, Tom Brady is said to be out of eligibility.
North Carolina goes 3-1 in nonconference play under Bill Belichick
North Carolina’s full schedule won’t be revealed until January, but their nonconference opponents are set. The Tar Heels will host TCU, travel to Charlotte, host Richmond, and visit UCF to open the season.
Only TCU and Richmond—who had the best record of the group at 10-3—finished with winning seasons. Though predicting outcomes now is difficult, considering how much teams can change within a season, a bold but reasonable prediction is that Belichick’s Tar Heels go 3-1 in nonconference play to begin the 2025 season.
The Charlotte game is especially intriguing, as it will be amusing to see Belichick on the road—albeit a short trip—against a AAC team. Meanwhile, UCF will feature its own new head coach, Scott Frost, in what could be an interesting matchup.
North Carolina improves to a top-50 defense under Bill Belichick
Mack Brown’s second stint at UNC was plagued by defensive struggles, where he never could find the right hire at defensive coordinator. During his tenure, the Tar Heels often ranked as one of the worst teams in FBS defensively, per Sports Reference stats:
- 44th in scoring defense in 2020 (best season)
- 65th in 2021
- 105th in 2022
- 102nd in 2023
- 75th in 2024
- 91st in 2025
Belichick’s defensive pedigree makes it hard to imagine UNC remaining in the bottom tier. Even with the challenges of transition and roster turnover, moving from 91st to the top 50 in scoring defense would be a massive improvement—and an achievable goal for the NFL legend.
North Carolina reaches a bowl game in Year 1 under Bill Belichick
UNC has made six consecutive bowl appearances, though their last bowl win was in 2019. Even in Mack Brown’s worst seasons, the Tar Heels finished with at least six wins to qualify for postseason play.
Belichick’s first season might not yield immediate dominance, but getting to a bowl game feels entirely reasonable, especially in the ACC. With a predicted 3-1 record in nonconference play, the Tar Heels would only need three more wins in conference to qualify for a bowl game. With matchups against teams like Stanford, Virginia, Wake Forest, and Cal, it's entirely possible.
