The NBA trade deadline is Thursday at noon, and there is little indication that the Trail Blazers are going to make a deal.

While it seemed relatively likely just 24 hours ago that guard Malcolm Brogdon would be on the move in order to free up playing time for Anfernee Simons, Scoot Henderson, and Shaedon Sharpe in the backcourt, the report of Sharpe's impending abdominal surgery changes the math in that regard.

It's still possible that Brogdon gets moved if the price is right, but the Blazers are much more likely to value stability at the guard position through the rest of the season and reevaluate over the summer.

Standing pat isn't necessarily a bad idea for the Blazers, but there are things that could go wrong at the deadline for Portland that are outside of the team's control.

Tanking teams could leap Portland in lottery odds

The Blazers aren't going to catch the likes of the Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets, or San Antonio Spurs in the race for the top lottery odds. But the Toronto Raptors and Memphis Grizzlies are both right behind Portland in the chase for a top pick. Should the Raptors move off of Bruce Brown solely for draft capital, or Memphis get even thinner in their quest for future assets while the Blazers keep veteran talent around, Portland could feasibly fall from having the fourth best odds to fifth or sixth in the NBA Draft lottery.

Young player development could be impacted

This one's not as likely, considering that Henderson seems to be thriving off the bench. But, despite the Blazers' unstated goal of securing solid lottery odds, head coach Chauncey Billups is looking to win games. While he's not necessarily in ‘coaching for his job' territory at this point, it's been two-and-a-half losing seasons for Portland, and he's eager to show that his team is developing. By not trading Brogdon (or Jerami Grant to a lesser degree), and continuing to play him during crunch-time in close games is just less time for the Blazers' young players to get reps during key minutes down the stretch.

Conventional wisdom says that there isn't a load of difference in player development whether a young guy is playing 23 minutes or 28 minutes, and that's largely true. But part of developing a winning culture is young players learning how to win on the court when the game is on the line. Balancing that with the veteran mentorship that Brogdon and Grant provide is a tricky balancing act for the Blazers at present.

Should the Blazers make a move, it will certainly be with the future in mind. It wouldn't be shocking to see them stand pat, unless they get a knockout offer for Brogdon, but it's not likely now, given Sharpe's injury. The team also projects to have two picks in the upper half of the first round of the 2024 Draft, and four total picks. That the draft is considered one of the weaker ones in recent memory means that the Blazers likely don't covet yet another pick this summer.

Whatever the Blazers do, there are risks involved. What makes it tricky for Portland is that it's not just the danger of making a bad move, but possibly not making a move at all and then seeing negative ramifications of that play out.