MLB odds: Blue Jays vs. Red Sox prediction, odds, pick, and more – 7/29/2021
The Red Sox are in control of the AL East and in control of this series. Boston has taken two of the first three games against Toronto, holding onto their 2.5 game lead in the division. The Blue Jays are running out of time to make a playoff push, so splitting this series against Boston would be a nice start for them. Toronto will probably have pitching reinforcements arriving at the trade deadline, setting them up to make a run at the AL East crown. This game is an important one for both teams, so expect to see good baseball from everyone taking the field.
Here’s how the bookmakers have set the odds for Thursday’s game.
MLB Odds: Blue Jays-Red Sox Odds
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Toronto Blue Jays ML (+110)
Boston Red Sox ML (-120)
Over 10 1/2 runs (-112)
Under 10 1/2 runs (-108)
Why The Blue Jays Could Cover The Spread
Toronto has struggled to pitch well all season long, but they get to send one of their more reliable starters to the mound on Thursday. Ace Hyun Jin Ryu will take the mound for this series finale.
Ryu has been pretty solid on the season, earning himself a 3.44 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He’s faced the Red Sox twice this year, with his most recent outing being his best. Ryu pitched seven scoreless innings and earned a victory the last time he faced Boston. The Red Sox are a great offense, but Ryu has shown that he can have success against them and any other team in the MLB.
Boston may have the best offense in the league, but the Blue Jays aren’t far behind. They rank inside the top two in baseball in batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS. Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez will have his hands full in this one.
Rodriguez has had a rough year for Boston. He owns a 5.23 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP so far. Unfortunately for Rodriguez, there are a couple stats that are leaning in Toronto’s direction. The Blue Jays have six hitters in their lineup that own a barrel percentage of 9.4% or higher. Rodriguez allows a 7.7% barrel percentage, sitting just around average. Average probably isn’t going to cut it against the best power hitting team in the MLB, so it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Blue Jays score some runs off of the long ball.
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
Boston’s rotation has been better than anyone expected, but their real strength comes from the offense. The Red Sox rank inside the top five in the league in batting average, slugging percentage, and OPS. Boston has also hit the third-most RBIs in baseball, so this lineup won’t be an easy task for Ryu.
Ryu’s stats look pretty good at first glance, but there are a couple key factors that Boston has a huge advantage in. Ryu allows a 41.3% hard hit percentage, a poor number for any pitcher. The Red Sox specialize in destroying the baseball, with eight of their nine hitters owning a hard hit percentage of 40.5% or higher. That’s an insane number for Boston, and it makes them a terrible matchup for Ryu.
The Red Sox are also a significantly better offense when they play in Fenway Park. Boston’s team batting average is .241 on the road, but that number skyrockets to .273 when the Red Sox play in the shadow of the Green Monster. All of Boston’s other batting stats follow suite, as they see a rise in OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage.
Final Blue Jays-Red Sox Prediction & Pick
With both of these offense performing at an elite level lately, the over looks like a great pick. Ryu may be able to hold up for the early innings, but it’s nearly impossible to hold down the Red Sox lineup for nine innings. The Blue Jays should destroy Rodriguez early in the game, so Toronto cracking the over on their own isn’t out of the question. Picking the Blue Jays is also a decent bet.
FINAL BLUE JAYS-RED SOX PREDICTION AND PICK: Over 10 1/2 runs (-112)