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UFC 317: Ilia Topuria versus Charles Oliveira continues the prelims with a fight between Niko Price and Jacobe Smith in the welterweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Price-Smith prediction and pick.
Niko Price (16-8, 2 NC) enters UFC 317 coming off a tough decision loss to Themba Gorimbo last October, after snapping a skid with a hard-fought win over Alex Morono. Now, Price looks to recapture his wild finishing form as he welcomes undefeated Jacobe Smith to the Octagon this Saturday.
Jacobe Smith (10-0) stormed into the UFC with a 73-second knockout of Preston Parsons, following a dominant TKO win over Christien Savoie on Dana White’s Contender Series. Now, Smith looks to keep his perfect record intact and make a statement against veteran Niko Price at UFC 317 this Saturday.
Here are the UFC 317 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 317 Odds: Niko Price-Jacobe Smith Odds
Niko Price: +1100
Jackson McVey: -2100
Over 1.5 rounds: +180
Under 1.5 rounds: -238
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Why Niko Price Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Themba Gorimbo – DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 13 (10 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Niko Price’s path to victory over Jacobe Smith at UFC 317 hinges on his wealth of UFC experience and unpredictable finishing ability. Price has fought and finished some of the division’s toughest names, boasting 10 knockouts and 3 submissions, making him a threat everywhere the fight goes.
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While Smith is a surging prospect with a perfect record and devastating power, he’s never faced an opponent with Price’s blend of wild striking and submission savvy. Price’s unorthodox attacks, including up-kicks and hammerfists from his back, have produced some of the most unique knockouts in UFC history. If Smith gets too aggressive or overcommits on the ground, Price’s creativity could catch him off guard.
Veteran savvy also plays a role. Price has proven durability and the ability to recover from adversity, often rallying late in fights. If he can survive Smith’s early onslaught, Price’s experience in deep waters and his tendency to thrive in chaos may push the prospect into unfamiliar territory.
Finally, Price’s takedown defense and submission threat could neutralize Smith’s wrestling, forcing more striking exchanges where Price’s power and unpredictability give him the chance to land a fight-ending shot. If Price drags Smith into a brawl, his veteran grit could produce the upset.
Why Jacobe Smith Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Preston Parsons – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 8 (8 KO/TKO)
Jacobe Smith has all the tools to defeat Niko Price at UFC 317, starting with his elite wrestling pedigree and relentless takedown game. Averaging an astonishing 11.5 takedowns per 15 minutes with 87% accuracy, Smith’s ability to dictate where the fight takes place is unmatched in this matchup.
On the feet, Smith has shown rapidly improving striking, highlighted by his 70% significant striking accuracy and a devastating first-round knockout in his UFC debut against Preston Parsons. His combination of speed, power, and timing makes him a threat both standing and on the ground. Price, while dangerous, absorbs a high volume of strikes and has struggled against strong wrestlers in the past.
Smith’s defensive numbers are also impressive, absorbing just 1.97 significant strikes per minute and boasting a 52% striking defense rate. This means he’s not only aggressive but also difficult to hit cleanly. If Smith implements his game plan, he can neutralize Price’s wild offense and keep the fight in his wheelhouse.
With youth, momentum, and a perfect record on his side, Smith’s relentless pressure and finishing instincts could overwhelm Price early. Expect Smith to mix takedowns with powerful strikes, control the pace, and secure another statement win to remain undefeated in the UFC.
Final Niko Price-Jacobe Smith Prediction & Pick
This matchup between Niko Price and Jacobe Smith at UFC 317 is a classic clash of veteran unpredictability versus surging prospect momentum. Price brings a wealth of experience and a history of wild, fight-ending moments, making him a live underdog against any opponent. His finishing instincts and ability to thrive in chaos can never be counted out.
However, Smith’s elite wrestling and rapidly improving striking present a stylistic challenge that Price has struggled with in the past. Smith’s ability to dictate the pace with relentless takedowns, combined with a high striking accuracy and strong defensive numbers, gives him a clear path to neutralize Price’s offense and control the fight.
If Smith can avoid Price’s unpredictable attacks early and impose his wrestling, he should be able to grind out rounds or even find a finish on the ground. The youth, athleticism, and momentum are on Smith’s side, making him the favorite in this matchup. Expect Smith to weather any early storms and secure a mid-round stoppage, remaining undefeated as he continues his rise in the UFC’s welterweight division.
Final Niko Price-Jacobe Smith Prediction & Pick: Jacobe Smith to Win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 2 (+400), Under 1.5 Rounds (-238)
