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UFC 317: Ilia Topuria versus Charles Oliveira continues on the main card with a fight between Beneil Dariush and Renato Moicano in the lightweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Dariush-Moicano prediction and pick.
Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) comes into UFC 317 looking to rebound from consecutive first-round knockout losses to Arman Tsarukyan and Charles Oliveira. Before that skid, Dariush earned a dominant, unanimous decision over Mateusz Gamrot. Now, Dariush aims to get back on track against Renato Moicano this Saturday in Las Vegas.
Renato Moicano (20-6-1) enters UFC 317 after a tough first-round submission loss to Islam Makhachev at UFC 311, which snapped his impressive three-fight win streak. Before that, Moicano stopped Benoît Saint Denis via doctor’s stoppage and finished Jalin Turner with a second-round TKO. Now, Moicano looks to rebound against Beneil Dariush this Saturday.
Here are the UFC 317 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 317 Odds: Beneil Dariush-Renato Moicano Odds
Beneil Dariush: -105
Renato Moicano: -115
Over 2.5 rounds: -110
Under 2.5 rounds: -120
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Why Beneil Dariush Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Arman Tsarukyani – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 13 (5 KO/TKO/8 SUB)
Beneil Dariush has a clear path to victory over Renato Moicano at UFC 317, thanks to his elite grappling, wrestling, and veteran experience. Dariush is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with eight submission wins, and he’s averaged nearly two takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC, using his top control to neutralize dangerous opponents. When Dariush leans on his wrestling, as he did in dominant wins over Tony Ferguson and Diego Ferreira, he’s able to dictate the pace, rack up control time, and avoid risky exchanges on the feet.
Moicano’s biggest threats are his own submission game and Muay Thai striking, but Dariush has proven he can hang with high-level grapplers and outwork them over three rounds. While both fighters are coming off tough losses, Dariush’s defeats came against elite competition—Charles Oliveira and Arman Tsarukyan, where he was caught early, not outclassed over the long haul. If Dariush returns to his wrestling roots and avoids prolonged striking exchanges, he can exploit Moicano’s cardio in high-paced fights and limit the Brazilian’s submission opportunities.
Expect Dariush to mix striking with well-timed takedowns, control position on the mat, and use his experience to grind out a decision or potentially find a late submission, reestablishing himself as a top lightweight contender.
Why Renato Moicano Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Islam Makhachev – SUB R1
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 12 (2 KO/TKO/10 SUB)
Renato Moicano has the skill set and momentum to defeat Beneil Dariush at UFC 317. Moicano’s striking has become increasingly technical and effective, as he regularly sets a high pace and controls range with his jab and volume, landing 4.36 significant strikes per minute with 48% accuracy. His ability to target the head and break down opponents was on display in recent wins over Benoît Saint Denis and Jalin Turner, where he showcased both his striking and finishing instincts.
On the ground, Moicano is a proven submission artist, boasting ten career submission wins, including six in the UFC. He averages 1.82 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 44% success rate, and his grappling transitions are slick and opportunistic. Dariush has been finished in the first round of his last two fights, raising concerns about his durability and ability to weather early adversity against a fast starter like Moicano.
Moicano’s recent camp was dedicated entirely to preparing for Dariush, giving him a strategic edge and confidence heading into this matchup. If Moicano can keep the fight at range and capitalize on Dariush’s recent defensive lapses, expect him to either outpoint Dariush on the feet or find a submission if the fight hits the mat.
Final Beneil Dariush-Renato Moicano Prediction & Pick
Renato Moicano uses his technical striking and sharp jab to keep Beneil Dariush at bay, controlling the range and landing clean combinations throughout the fight. Moicano’s improved takedown defense frustrates Dariush’s attempts to get the fight to the mat, forcing more exchanges on the feet where Moicano’s accuracy shines.
Whenever Dariush presses forward, Moicano counters with crisp shots and mixes in calf kicks to slow Dariush’s movement. Moicano’s cardio and pace remain steady, and his ability to avoid prolonged grappling exchanges allows him to dictate the tempo. As the fight progresses, Moicano’s confidence grows, and he begins to open up with combinations and knees in the clinch.
Dariush’s toughness keeps him in the contest, but Moicano’s striking volume and defensive awareness consistently win the key moments. By the final bell, Moicano’s control of distance and superior striking secured him a clear victory, solidifying his place among the lightweight elite.
Final Beneil Dariush-Renato Moicano Prediction & Pick: Renato Moicano (-115), Over 2.5 rounds (-110)
