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UFC 317: Ilia Topuria versus Charles Oliveira kicks off the main card with a fight between Payton Talbott and Felipe Lima in the bantamweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Talbott-Felipe Lima prediction and pick.
Payton Talbott (9-1) rebounded from his first career loss, a dominant decision defeat to Raoni Barcelos at UFC 311, by showcasing his finishing prowess in previous outings. Before that setback, Talbott rattled off three straight UFC wins by stoppage, including a 19-second knockout of Yanis Ghemmouri. Now, Talbott faces Felipe Lima this Saturday.
Felipe Lima (14-1) enters UFC 317 riding a 14-fight win streak, including two impressive UFC victories. Most recently, Lima dominated Miles Johns with sharp striking and cage control for a unanimous decision, following a third-round submission win over Muhammad Naimov. Now, Lima looks to extend his momentum against Payton Talbott this Saturday.
Here are the UFC 317 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 317 Odds: Payton Talbott-Felipe Lima Odds
Payton Talbott: +150
Felipe Lima: -180
Over 2.5 rounds: -195
Under 2.5 rounds: +150
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Why Payton Talbott Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Raoni Barcelos – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 8 (7 KO/TKO/1 SUB)
Payton Talbott has the tools and momentum to defeat Felipe Lima at UFC 317. Talbott’s aggressive striking and knockout power have defined his career, with seven of his nine wins coming by KO. His ability to overwhelm opponents early with volume and precision makes him a constant threat to finish fights quickly.
Talbott’s relentless pressure and high strike output, he once landed a record-setting 145 strikes in a single fight, can disrupt Lima’s rhythm and prevent him from establishing his distance-based striking and grappling game. While Lima is a skilled and versatile fighter, Talbott’s pace and power could force Lima into uncomfortable exchanges where Talbott excels.
Given Talbott’s youth, athleticism, and finishing instincts, he is well-positioned to dictate the fight’s tempo and capitalize on any openings. Expect Talbott to push the pace, land heavy shots early, and potentially secure a stoppage or dominant decision over Lima this weekend at UFC 317.
Why Felipe Lima Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Miles Johns – DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 7 (4 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Felipe Lima has a strong case to beat Payton Talbott at UFC 317, largely due to his well-rounded skill set and proven ability to handle high-level competition. Lima is riding a 14-fight win streak, including two impressive UFC victories, one by submission and one by dominant decision, showcasing both his grappling and striking abilities.
Lima’s versatility is a key advantage in this matchup. He’s adept at distance management, using a wide stance and sharp movement to control the range and set up combinations, while also possessing dangerous grappling skills that allow him to threaten with submissions and control opponents on the mat. Against Miles Johns and Muhammad Naimov, Lima demonstrated composure and adaptability, traits that will be crucial against a dynamic striker like Talbott.
Talbott, while explosive and dangerous on the feet, was recently exposed by Raoni Barcelos, who used superior wrestling and control to neutralize Talbott’s offense. Unless Talbott has made significant improvements in his grappling in just five months time, Lima’s ability to mix up his attacks and exploit holes in Talbott’s ground game gives him a clear path to victory. Expect Lima to use his wrestling and submission threat to dictate the fight’s pace and likely secure a decision win.
Final Payton Talbott-Felipe Lima Prediction & Pick
Felipe Lima and Payton Talbott open at a blistering pace, with Talbott pressing forward and looking to land heavy combinations early. Lima uses his footwork and range to avoid the worst of Talbott’s power, countering with crisp jabs and low kicks to disrupt the American’s rhythm. As the first round progresses, Lima begins mixing in level changes and clinch work, forcing Talbott to defend takedowns and expend energy.
By the second round, Lima’s pressure and grappling start to pay dividends. He secures a takedown and controls Talbott on the mat, landing ground-and-pound and threatening with submissions. Talbott shows flashes of danger on the feet, but Lima’s composure and ability to transition between striking and grappling keep him a step ahead.
In the final round, Talbott’s output slows as Lima continues to dictate the pace, landing clean shots in the stand-up and using his wrestling to neutralize Talbott’s offense. Lima avoids any late-fight danger, maintaining top control and finishing strong. After three competitive rounds, Lima’s well-rounded attack and superior fight IQ earn him a clear decision victory, extending his win streak and handing Talbott another tough lesson at UFC 317.
Final Payton Talbott-Felipe Lima Prediction & Pick: Felipe Lima (-180), Over 2.5 rounds (-195)
