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UFC 317 continues to roll from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas as we're set for a betting prediction and pick for the Featured Prelim of the night, taking place in the Middleweight (185) Division. Jack Hermansson of Norway will take on Brazil's Gregory Rodrigues in a bout that won't disappoint. Check the UFC odds series for our Hermansson-Rodrigues prediction and pick.
Jack Hermansson (24-8) has gone 11-6 since entering the UFC in 2016. Since 2019, he's alternated wins and losses over the last nine fights, amassing a 5-4 record during that stretch. His most recent win over Joe Pyfer was one of his most impressive and he'll hope to build his first winning streak in quite some time. Hermansson stands 6-foot-1 with a 77.5-inch reach.
Gregory Rodrigues (16-6) has gone 7-3 inside the UFC since 2021. He notched three consecutive victories during a blistering run, but most recently fell to Jared Cannonier during his last bout, tagged as a Main Event. He'll hope to get back on the winning track with a win as the betting favorite. Rodrigues stands 6-foot-3 with a 75-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 317 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 317 Odds: Jack Hermansson-Gregory Rodrigues Odds
Jack Hermansson: +170
Gregory Rodrigues: -205
Over 2.5 rounds: -145
Under 2.5 rounds: +114
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Why Jack Hermansson Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Joe Pyfer – U DEC
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 10 KO/TKO, 7 SUB
Jack Hermansson notched one of his bigger wins in recent memory after being billed the +210 betting underdog against rising prospect Joe Pyfer. Hermansson was the first UFC opponent to stop Pyfer during his blazing run, offering a ton of resistance over the course of five rounds and actually out-striking Pyfer 188-95. He looked his best in quite some time and should be riding a great wave of momentum heading into another bout as the underdog.
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Jack Hermansson will have a similar look in this matchup as Rodrigues is also known for his knockout power. However, Hermansson won't be the bigger guy this time around and we've seen Rodrigues be much more aggressive than Pyfer in the past. Hermansson should look to keep a safe distance while relying on his jab once again to close the striking gap and disrupt Rodrigues' timing.
Hermansson will also have a path to victory thanks to his 80% takedown defense and 56% defense when it comes to striking. He's very defensively-minded and his attention to technique should bode well against a dangerous opponent like Rodrigues. Hermansson is also very skilled in dictating the pace of a fight, so expect him to slow things down against a fighter that tends to start fast.
Why Gregory Rodrigues Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Jared Cannonier – TKO (punches, R4)
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 9 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Gregory Rodrigues fell short against Jared Cannonier during his last fight, but it was more a testament to Cannonier's skills and striking power instead of something Rodrigues failed to do. During this matchup, Rodrigues will be the bigger fighter and certainly packs a bigger punch when landing clean with his striking. Ultimately, he'll be looking to coax Hermansson into a striking exchange while relying on his power and hoping he can land first.
Rodrigues will have to slightly improve his striking defense in this fight if he wants to avoid the consistent jab of Jack Hermansson. Rodrigues should look to tie Hermansson up in his clinch, where he's proven to be extremely dangerous with both his knees and elbows. Against the fence, Rodrigues is just as dangerous and will certainly have a strength advantage when dealing with his opponents.
Ultimately, Rodrigues is the rightful favorite here thanks to his knockout power, but it's his athleticism and ability to remain dangerous while under fire that will be his biggest advantage throughout this fight.
Final Jack Hermansson-Gregory Rodrigues Prediction & Pick
Both men are on the edge of a potential ranking and will have a ton to fight for during this meeting. Jack Hermansson is at the top of his game following his last win, but we've seen a common theme in him dropping fights following a strong win.
Gregory Rodrigues, on the other hand, comes in following a loss and will be very motivated to get back in the winning column as the betting favorite.
Both of these men possess similar skill sets and can do the same things in terms of their abilities. I don't see much, if any of this fight taking place on the ground and we have to give the slight striking advantage to Rodrigues thanks to his power.
For our final betting prediction, we'll have to side with Gregory Rodrigues to get the win as he just has more ways to win the fight. He's also the more dangerous fighter under pressure and I expect his landed strikes to have more impact throughout this fight.
Final Jack Hermansson-Gregory Rodrigues Prediction & Pick: Gregory Rodrigues (-205)
